BERLIN – Iran faces a dilemma after the Israeli strikes on Oct 26.

       If it retaliates, it risks further escalation at a time when its economy is struggling, its allies are faltering, its military vulnerability is clear and its leadership succession is in play.

       If it does not, it risks looking weak to those same allies, as well as to more aggressive and powerful voices at home.

       Iran is in the middle of a regional war. Since the Hamas-led attack on Oct 7, 2023, Israel has moved swiftly to damage the militant group in the Gaza Strip and other Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis and its allies in Syria and Iraq.

       These groups represent Iran’s “forward defence” against Israel, the heart of the nation’s deterrence. They have been badly weakened by the Israeli military’s tough response since Oct 7, which weakens Iran too and makes it more vulnerable.

       Iranian officials have made it clear that they do not want a direct war with Israel. They want to preserve their allies, the so-called ring of fire around Israel.

       After Israel struck Iran, Tehran on Oct 26 publicly played down the effect of the attack and showed ordinary programming on television. It did not immediately vow a major retaliation, but simply restated its right to do so.

       Adding to its reticence, Iran faces enormous economic problems, making it wary of an extended and costly war with Israel. It has been heavily penalised by the US and Europe over its nuclear programme, forcing it to move closer to Russia and China.

       The Islamic regime is also dealing with serious domestic dissent over rising prices and its harsh rule. It is committed to the destruction of Israel, but also to preserving its power in a sophisticated country in which it is increasingly unpopular.

       That is one reason, analysts believe, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, allowed the election of a more moderate president, Mr Masoud Pezeshkian, after the harder-line Mr Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash.

       Complicating matters, a quiet battle has emerged over succession.

       Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 85, is believed to be seriously ill. With Mr Raisi gone, there is internal disquiet over the possibility that Mr Khamenei’s second son Mojtaba, 55, might succeed him. Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard will have an important say and is considered more willing to confront Israel.

       Whatever Iran’s ultimate calculation, hoping to avoid a larger war does not mean it can. NYTIMES