Rishi Sunak in Stevenage, Hertfordshire (Image: Getty)
PLOTTERS may move against Rishi Sunak this week if local election results signal the Conservatives are heading towards annihilation in the national poll.
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A Tory mutiny could be triggered if Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen – who was elected in 2021 with nearly 73 per cent of the vote – is defeated.
There will be further despair in party ranks if former John Lewis boss Andy Street is ousted as Mayor of the West Midlands.
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Senior MPs suggest Mr Sunak could choose to step down – or call an early general election – if panicked MPs trigger a confidence vote in him.
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One Westminster insider who is an opponent of the PM said: “Plans are crystallising as we speak. The Tory party has had one consistent policy over the course of the history which is this: No matter the era, no matter the leader, no matter the stakes, it will do whatever is necessary in order to preserve itself.”
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Tory West Midlands Mayor Andy Sreet is seeking re-election (Image: PA)
On the challenge of finding a new leader whom the different factions of the party could unite behind, the plotter said: “Just watch this space.”
Exclusive polling by WeThink shows 44 per cent of people think Conservative MPs will try to replace Mr Sunak before the next election.
This is despite 74 per cent of respondents saying that a change of leader would not make them more likely to vote Conservative.
Of those who said a new leader could boost their chances of voting Tory, the most popular choices were Leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt, seven per cent, former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and ex-Home Secretary Priti Patel both with four per cent.
A senior MP who is supportive of Mr Sunak warned that ousting him would lead to an electoral “wipe out” but put the chances of a confidence vote at around one in five.
Arguing there is no potential leader waiting in the wings who could transform the party’s standing in the polls, the MP said: “There is no Messiah who is going to come and change everything.”
He suggested the PM could choose to call it a day or go to the country if 15 per cent of MPs write to the chairman of the 1922 committee and request a confidence vote.
“The thing is, even if Rishi wins a confidence vote he won’t want to carry on until the autumn with half the party against him,” he said.
“He could call a general election there and then.”
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The pollsters also asked the public if they thought the party would do better in the coming election if Boris Johnson was still leader. Thirty-seven per cent of people said they thought it would – including 48 per cent of Tory supporters and 55 per cent of those intending to support Reform UK – but 63 per cent disagreed.
An MP who had previously been a stalwart supporter of Mr Johnson warned against trying to push the PM out when an election is expected in the autumn, saying: “I think anyone who puts in a letter is completely out of sync with the party members.
“I’ve just come back from constituency – the mood amongst party members is this is not the time to change leader, we must stuck with Rishi. He’s doing a very good job with the economy, with defence spending – he’s doing everything we require and to undermine him now would be disastrous for the Conservative Party.”
However, a former minister agreed that losses in Tees Valley and the West Midlands could trigger a revolt.
“If Andy and Ben lose and we lose a load of council seats I would not be surprised if a raft of letters go in,” they said, putting the chances of a no confidence vote at upwards of 30 per cent.
They said they would not be surprised if the PM decided to call a general election if this happened.
A key worry about trying to change leader is the party would appear in greater chaos than today.
The ex-minister said: “We already look in such disarray. If we throw another one out, are we going to look even more crazy?”
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There has even been speculation Mr Sunak could call an election as early as this week but a senior source dismissed this as “complete lunacy”.
However, David Campbell-Bannerman of the Conservative Democratic Organisation said: “The party still has a majority and others are willing to lead if he goes.”
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