The most likely scenario for the development of Russian-French relations is a maintaining of the status quo. None of the Mistral transactions will be reviewed, despite the fact that this caused concern among the opposition under the previous administration in France. In general, the positive trend of recent years will continue.

       During the Cold War, France held a special place in international politics. As part of the West and a staunch ally of the United States, France, from the time of Charles de Gaulle and its acquisition of nuclear independence, has always expressed its own interests and its own stance. The same policy was pursued by Charles de Gaulle’s successors, Georges Pompidou and Valery Giscard d'Estaing.

       Francois Mitterrand, contrary to expectations and American fears, pursued quite a tough policy toward the Soviet Union at the beginning of his term. Evidence of this is the controversy over the deployment of Pershing missiles in Europe. He was a reliable ally of NATO and the United States at the time. Mitterrand was among the first who believed in the project of transforming the Soviet Union and communism into social democracy. France's ties with the late-era Soviet Union were very strong under Mitterrand on this basis.

       Later in the 1990s, Jacques Chirac developed a good personal rapport with Boris Yeltsin. However, during this period, there were not enough economic interests, and there was a general fear of the consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Relations between the two countries have since revived, especially in the last 10 years, during Jacques Chirac's second term, as well as under President Nicolas Sarkozy, largely due to the growing presence of major French companies in Russia. Global projects, as well as the symbolic participation of French energy companies in the Nord Stream and South Stream projects, the sale of the French Mistral amphibious ships to Russia, among other things, also played a role.

       And now, under a socialist president, the continuity of previous years will, in my opinion, be preserved. Despite the assumption of a continuation of the status quo, there are several issues related to the fact that socialists tend to show little interest in Russia and that they hold more prejudices against Russia than the previous administration. There are therefore those in Russia who are showing concern about any possible adjustments that Francois Hollande may make to try and resolve both political and economic issues.

       Today, French economic interests in Russia are so strong that, hopefully, they will dictate the policy of the political successors, as was the case five years ago when Nicolas Sarkozy came to power. At that time there were even greater concerns than there are now with the election of Hollande. But in general, these fears were unfounded.

       The Russian authorities see one positive aspect in that Hollande is a traditionalist in terms of foreign policy. He is a supporter of the conventional de Gaulle – Mitterrand line. Within this framework Russia plays a rather substantial role in international relations. In my opinion, there will be no radical changes in relations between Russia and France during Hollande's term in office.

       The most likely scenario for the development of Russian-French relations is a maintaining of the status quo. None of the Mistral transactions will be reviewed, despite the fact that this caused concern among the opposition under the previous administration in France. In general, the positive trend of recent years will continue. However, I also believe that disagreements will remain. I do not expect France to change its stance on Syria, for example. Perhaps there will be some softening on Iran, although we remember that Nicolas Sarkozy took a very tough stance on this issue, sometimes adopting an even harsher line than the U.S. Nothing new is expected on global issues such as international security, Afghanistan, terrorism, and relations between Europe and Russia. Mr Hollande's statements in Chicago on European missile defense may be a new element in bilateral relations between Russia and France. He did not want this project to arouse suspicion in Russia.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.