OPINION

       Boris Johnson could be set for a comeback (Image: PA)

       Reform UK faces perhaps its greatest opportunity but also its greatest risks as success looms at the May 1 elections. Nigel Farage's party looks set to win the Runcorn by-election alongside a host of council seats and a few mayoralties. But if Reform can transform opinion poll ratings into tangible success then scrutiny will surely increase over the party's policies and personnel. Voters and pundits alike will want to know more about the top team beyond Farage - with eyes out for further Rupert Lowe-style infighting - as well as concrete ideas on everything from education to defence.

       Then of course risks could grow beyond the party's control. Right now, Reform benefits from Kemi Badenoch's leadership of the increasingly washed-up Conservatives. While I doubt Tory top brass would risk the optics of ousting Badenoch so soon after her election as party leader, what if it does? Robert Jenrick as party leader may or may not transform Tory fortunes but would he really do any worse?

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       143 Comments

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       103 Comments

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       242 Comments

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       183 Comments

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       190 Comments

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       Comments

       Things are looking increasingly difficult for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch (Image: PA)

       Don't miss... 'Kemi Badenoch's Tories are desperate ahead of Reform UK face-off' [LATEST]

       What of a Boris Johnson return? Partygate and record migration aside, virtually no Tory but Johnson has the charisma and profile to match Farage, the former a proven vote winner both as London Mayor and Tory chief. Rumours grow of a comeback.

       Meanwhile we already hear of Labour plans to water down climate policies and beef up the border. More of that kind of thing could sway some of the Red Wall, at least enough to pull Labour a few points clear of Reform.

       Internationally one cannot rule out another Covid-style shock. Perhaps a major war. Such an event could push domestic policies to the background and encourage a rally-around-the-flag effect.

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       That kind of thing always gives incumbents an advantage, while Reform's foreign and defence policies are decidedly thin on the ground.

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       Robert Jenrick vows to strike Reform-Tory deal in leaked recording

       143 Comments

       Labour tipped for disastrous defeat as party's poll numbers tank in key mayoral race

       103 Comments

       Desperate Lefties' new tactic to stop Nigel Farage's Reform storm at local elections

       242 Comments

       Nearly half Reform supporters want merger with Conservatives

       83 Comments

       Reform overtakes Labour in huge poll victory for Nigel Farage

       183 Comments

       Kemi Badenoch drops biggest clue yet Tories are desperate ahead of face-off with Reform UK

       45 Comments

       Moment Labour MP wannabe humiliated on doorstep

       124 Comments

       Nigel Farage sweeps Tory feet from underneath Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch

       190 Comments

       Tories on course to lose 500 seats in election nightmare with Reform storming councils

       91 Comments

       Bombshell poll puts Nigel Farage's Reform even more in front as Labour support crashes

       106 Comments

       Sky News presenters stunned as Nigel Farage unleashes ‘political drive-by' attack

       1 Comments

       Nigel Farage erupts at fishing 'disaster' as he warns of Keir Starmer Brexit betrayal

       368 Comments

       Ed Miliband is the most divisive man in politics - he's tearing Labour apart AGAIN

       301 Comments

       POLL: What issues matter the most to you in this local election?

       Comments

       Kemi Badenoch backs deal with Nigel Farage's Reform UK after local elections

       66 Comments

       Nigel Farage must escape fate of elections being referendum on Donald Trump

       37 Comments

       Just when Nigel Farage thought it couldn't be easier, Tories have him smiling ear to ear

       41 Comments

       Lib Dems try to woo Tories ‘appalled' at pact with Reform as election wipeout looms

       33 Comments

       Nigel Farage tipped to be 'big winner' in local elections in huge blow to Keir Starmer

       112 Comments

       Kemi Badenoch's latest election video reveals who she thinks the real enemy is

       5 Comments

       Robert Jenrick vows to strike Reform-Tory deal in leaked recording

       143 Comments

       Labour tipped for disastrous defeat as party's poll numbers tank in key mayoral race

       103 Comments

       Desperate Lefties' new tactic to stop Nigel Farage's Reform storm at local elections

       242 Comments

       Nearly half Reform supporters want merger with Conservatives

       83 Comments

       Reform overtakes Labour in huge poll victory for Nigel Farage

       183 Comments

       Kemi Badenoch drops biggest clue yet Tories are desperate ahead of face-off with Reform UK

       45 Comments

       Moment Labour MP wannabe humiliated on doorstep

       124 Comments

       Nigel Farage sweeps Tory feet from underneath Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch

       190 Comments

       Tories on course to lose 500 seats in election nightmare with Reform storming councils

       91 Comments

       Bombshell poll puts Nigel Farage's Reform even more in front as Labour support crashes

       106 Comments

       Sky News presenters stunned as Nigel Farage unleashes ‘political drive-by' attack

       1 Comments

       Nigel Farage erupts at fishing 'disaster' as he warns of Keir Starmer Brexit betrayal

       368 Comments

       Ed Miliband is the most divisive man in politics - he's tearing Labour apart AGAIN

       301 Comments

       POLL: What issues matter the most to you in this local election?

       Comments

       Kemi Badenoch backs deal with Nigel Farage's Reform UK after local elections

       66 Comments

       Nigel Farage must escape fate of elections being referendum on Donald Trump

       37 Comments

       Just when Nigel Farage thought it couldn't be easier, Tories have him smiling ear to ear

       41 Comments

       Lib Dems try to woo Tories ‘appalled' at pact with Reform as election wipeout looms

       33 Comments

       Nigel Farage tipped to be 'big winner' in local elections in huge blow to Keir Starmer

       112 Comments

       Kemi Badenoch's latest election video reveals who she thinks the real enemy is

       5 Comments

       Robert Jenrick vows to strike Reform-Tory deal in leaked recording

       143 Comments

       Labour tipped for disastrous defeat as party's poll numbers tank in key mayoral race

       103 Comments

       Desperate Lefties' new tactic to stop Nigel Farage's Reform storm at local elections

       242 Comments

       Nearly half Reform supporters want merger with Conservatives

       83 Comments

       Reform overtakes Labour in huge poll victory for Nigel Farage

       183 Comments

       Kemi Badenoch drops biggest clue yet Tories are desperate ahead of face-off with Reform UK

       45 Comments

       Moment Labour MP wannabe humiliated on doorstep

       124 Comments

       Reform UK is no doubt surging but the greater its electoral successes, the more scrutiny will grow, and the more Labour and the Tories could be catalysed to get their backsides into gear.

       Global crises aside, 2029 – the date the next election is slated for given Labour's supermajority – is a long way off. Much could happen between now and then.

       May 1 therefore could well confirm Reform's ability to remake British politics as a three-horse race. But it could also open the greatest risks yet for the insurgent party.