Boris Johnson faces a crunch decision on Monday on whether to trigger new coronavirus restrictions to prevent a renewed wave of Omicron infections around the new year.
The prime minister will be briefed by chief medical officer Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance on the latest data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths for the first time in three days, after a break for Christmas.
A crucial issue will be whether daily hospital admissions have breached 400 in the hotspot of London – a number that is thought to be an informal threshold for further action.
Mr Johnson has promised to recall parliament for a vote on any new legal curbs on social and economic activity, giving him up to 72 hours to secure cabinet approval and force any restrictions into law ahead of the traditional party night of New Year’s Eve, viewed by scientists as a moment of maximum peril for virus spread.
If the PM decides the data shows that the NHS is at risk of being overwhelmed, he is likely to call a meeting of the government’s Covid-O committee, or a full cabinet, to approve emergency moves. An announcement of proposed new restrictions could be made as early as Tuesday.
Recommended Hundreds more flights canceled because of staff shortages Covid inpatient numbers up as daily case total exceeds 10,000 again Boris Johnson faces crunch decision tomorrow on new Covid restrictions - live
England currently has lesser restrictions than Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, after the cabinet rejected recommendations for action from Prof Whitty last week.
Encouraging figures on Monday could allow Mr Johnson to stick to his relatively mild plan B restrictions through the new year, mandating face-coverings in many public places and Covid passes for entry to mass-audience venues like nightclubs and sports stadiums.
But if the soaring number of Omicron infections appears to be translating into more hospital admissions, more patients in intensive care and a higher number of deaths, he is likely to try once more to persuade fellow ministers to accept tougher restrictions.
This “plan C” could involve a return to the measures seen during the step 2 phase of emergence from lockdown in the spring, including a ban on indoor mixing, outdoor service only in pubs and restaurants, and the “rule of six” for outdoor gatherings.
Modelling by the PM’s scientific advisory group, Sage, found that a two- to three-week “circuit breaker” based on such measures could cut deaths by 18 per cent, while keeping the restrictions in place until the end of March could cut deaths by 39 per cent.
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UK news in pictures 24 December 2021 People stand inside Kings Cross Station on Christmas Eve in London
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UK news in pictures 22 December 2021 The sun rises behind the stones as people gather for the winter solstice at Stonehenge.
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UK news in pictures 13 December 2021 People queue outside a walk-in Covid-19 vaccination centre at St Thomas's Hospital in Westminster
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UK news in pictures 11 December 2021 People arrive at a Covid-19 vaccination centre at Elland Road in Leeds,
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UK news in pictures 10 December 2021 Stella Moris speaks to the media after the US Government won its High Court bid to overturn a judge’s decision not to extradite WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange
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UK news in pictures 4 December 2021 People walk through a Christmas market in Trafalgar Square
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UK news in pictures 30 November 2021 Workers put the finishing touches to the Trafalgar Square Christmas Tree ahead of the lighting ceremony later in the week
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UK news in pictures 29 November 2021 Home Secretary Priti Patel is greeted by a police dog at a special memorial service for Met Police Sergeant Matiu Ratana
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UK news in pictures 28 November 2021 Riyad Mahrez of Manchester City battles for possession with Aaron Cresswell of West Ham United during a match at the Etihad during snow
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UK news in pictures 3 December 2021 A pedestrian carries a dog as they dodge shoppers on Oxford Street in central London
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UK news in pictures 22 November 2021 The scene in Dragon Rise, Norton Fitzwarren, Somerset where police have launched a murder probe after two people were found dead
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UK news in pictures 20 November 2021 Police officers monitor as climate change activists sit down and block traffic during a protest action in solidarity with activists from the Insulate Britain group who received prison terms for blocking roads, on Lambeth Bridge in central London
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UK news in pictures 19 November 2021 A giant installation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson made from recycled clothing goes on display at Manchester Central, as part of Manchester Art Fair, in a 'wake-up call for the Prime Minister to tackle textile waste'
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UK news in pictures 18 November 2021 The scene at a recycling centre in Stert, near Devizes in Wiltshire after a large blaze was brought under control. The fire broke out on Wednesday night the fire service has said and local residents were advised to keep windows and doors shut due to large amounts of smoke
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UK news in pictures 17 November 2021 The sun rises over South Shields Lighthouse, on the North East coast of England
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UK news in pictures 16 November 2021 ancer Maithili Vijayakumar at the launch of 2021 Diwali celebrations at St Andrew Square in Edinburgh
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UK news in pictures 15 November 2021 Forensic officers work outside Liverpool Women's Hospital, following a car blast, in Liverpool
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UK news in pictures 14 November 2021 Wreaths by the Cenotaph after the Remembrance Sunday service in Whitehall, London
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UK news in pictures 13 November 2021 Richard Ratcliffe, the husband of detainee Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, is ending his hunger strike in central London after almost three weeks. Ratcliffe has spent 21 days camped outside the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in London without food. He began his demonstration on 24 October after his wife lost her latest appeal in Iran, saying his family was “caught in a dispute between two states”
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UK news in pictures 12 November 2021 Peter Green protesting outside the Cop26 gates during the official final day of the Cop26 summit in Glasgow.
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UK news in pictures 11 November 2021 Seagulls fly around the statue entitled 'Tommy', a first World War soldier by artist Ray Lonsdale at dawn in Seaham, Britain
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UK news in pictures 10 November 2021 Climate activists dressed as characters inspired by the Netflix series “Squid Game” protest as they ask Samsung to go 100% renewable energy, outside the venue for COP26 in Glasgow
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UK news in pictures 9 November 2021 A deer statue silhouetted at Loch Faskally in Pitlochry, Scotland
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However, if the data suggests Omicron is approaching its peak, the PM could dodge the danger of another rebellion by Tory MPs by issuing stronger guidance to the public, warning people not to mix indoors.
This would not require new regulations or a recall of the Commons from its festive break, but would provoke howls of rage from the hospitality industry, which fears “lockdown by stealth” as customers decide to stay at home without being required to do so by law.
The latest interim data issued by the Office for National Statistics for the period to 19 December showed that an estimated one person in 20 in London had Covid-19. Across the UK, some 1.7 million people were estimated to be infected, with increases in all age groups and all areas of England in the previous week.
Hospital admissions in the capital reached 386 on 22 December, but it is not yet clear whether they have since moved beyond 400.
Hopes that further restrictions could be avoided were buoyed last week by a UK Health Security Agency study, which found that people catching Omicron are 50 to 70 per cent less likely to need hospital care than those suffering from earlier strains of Covid-19, such as Delta.
But scientists are warning against complacency over the supposedly “milder” variant, pointing out that Omicron’s extreme transmissibility means that many more people are likely to become infected with it.
Epidemiologist Deepti Gurdasani, of Queen Mary University London, warned: “In simple terms, because Omicron can escape immunity from past infections and vaccines, your protection against infection with Omicron is vastly lower than with Delta.
“All the ‘mild’ takes compare Omicron hospitalisations once infected, without accounting for the fact that Omicron is infecting people who are vaccinated and had past infection, who wouldn’t have been infected with Delta at all because they were protected.
“So it’s increasing risk, rather than reducing it, by infecting people who wouldn’t have been infected with Delta, which means we are actually at higher risk of severe disease because of lower protection from infection with vaccination.
“A huge part of the Omicron advantage is being able to infect people with previous immunity that Delta wouldn’t have been able to penetrate. To argue that this somehow leads to a reduction in risk is, frankly, nuts.”
Meanwhile, mobile phone companies collaborated with the Department of Health in a Boxing Day drive to send out appeals by text message for people to come forward for the booster vaccination, which is believed to greatly reduce the risk from Omicron.
Health and social care secretary Sajid Javid said: “It has never been as important to get protected with the booster – so whether it is in between turkey sandwiches or before the Boxing Day fixtures, whatever your traditions, make the booster a part of them this year.
“Millions of vaccine slots are available through the festive calendar, so if you’re not boosted and you get this text, take up the offer and get vaccinated.”
Amid reports that the government is determined to reopen schools following the Christmas break, there were renewed calls for better measures to reduce the risk of spreading Covid in the classroom.
Mathematical biologist Kit Yates of the University of Bath asked: “Why is the only plan to keep schools open a plan which involves recruiting vulnerable retired teachers back to the classroom to deliver patchwork coverage?
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“Surely, two years in, we can do better than that: Ventilation, masks, filters, vaccines? It’s past time to start putting in mitigations in schools.
“Sure, even if we start now they won’t all be completed by the time schools go back, but we will have made a start. If you don’t start, you can’t hope to finish.”