Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (Mainichi/Kan Takeuchi)

       TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has announced that he intends to seek reelection as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) over two months before his term expires, while no other contenders have thrown their hats in the ring -- suggesting he hopes to continue as party leader without a vote.

       Suga expressed his enthusiasm to be reelected as party leader on July 17, over two months before the end of his term in September. After being asked about his participation in the leadership election during a Yomiuri Telecasting Corp. TV program, the prime minister emphasized that "of course, COVID-19 countermeasures should be a top priority," before stating, "It should be natural as the party leader to run (in the next leadership contest) when the time comes."

       However, some LDP members were skeptical of the move, with one commenting, "No matter who the prime minister is, dealing with COVID-19 measures is a difficult task. It's just that there is no one else willing to risk their neck."

       In party leadership contests of recent years, there have been many cases where the present incumbents declare their intention to run for the leadership at the last minute. Then prime minister Shinzo Abe declared his candidacy seven days before the announcement date of the 2015 LDP leadership election, which he won by default, and 12 days before that of the 2018 election between him and former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba. As for the leadership contest in 2012, during the period when the LDP was not the ruling party, then LDP leader Sadakazu Tanigaki gave up on taking part in the race.

       In the case that an incumbent party leader declares their intention to run for party president, and a separate candidate emerges afterwards, there is the risk that the public will receive the impression that "the party is divided." On July 21, Ishiba said during a filming session of a Tokyo Broadcasting System Television, Inc. (TBS) satellite TV program, "Although I've been a lawmaker for a long time, as far as I'm aware, I hardly remember any instances of incumbent leaders saying such a thing at this stage," as he expressed surprise toward Suga's ambitious stance.

       In the background of Suga's public declaration to run in the next contest seems to be the aim to be reelected as party leader without voting taking place, and to reinforce his foothold in the LDP from autumn. This decision seems to be based on presumed support from Abe, who has a strong influence on the Hosoda faction -- the LDP's largest group -- as well as other party heavyweights, including LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai. Suga's announcement also has the objective to push back potential rivals, and LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Hiroshi Moriyama also expressed his support, saying, "It's natural that the prime minister announced his next moves."

       Meanwhile, Fumio Kishida, former LDP Policy Research Council chairman and Ishiba, who faced Suga in the previous 2020 leadership contest, have not made their positions clear. An individual close to the LDP said, "Right now is a time when officials should focus on coronavirus countermeasures, and they must be thinking that they can't 'stand in the way.'" However, while the government has been the target of criticism for a sudden surge in coronavirus patients and a delay in its response, an LDP senior official dismissed the idea of the leadership election, saying, "There won't be much enthusiasm even if we hold the leadership contest. Who would run as a candidate under these circumstances?"

       Therefore, Suga's key strategy for the leadership contest is to restore the LDP's power as well as his own power of unifying the party. An aide to Suga pointed out, "Even if he is criticized for individual aspects, the prime minister is thinking the Japanese public will regard his policies highly when viewing them as a whole."

       Though there is no change in Suga's game plan to have the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics end in success and curb infections by carrying out coronavirus vaccinations before dissolving the lower house and partaking in the LDP leadership contest, Tokyo reported a record number of 2,848 new coronavirus cases on July 27. The optimistic scenario laid out by the prime minister still has many causes for concern.

       (Japanese original by Jun Aoki, Political News Department)

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