News that Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin would resign in order to run for the mayoral election in September came as quite a shock. Sobyanin’s political potential is fairly dubious, not to mention his approval ratings. He has not finished many of the projects he initiated and the electoral effect from these projects is expected to come a bit later than September 2013. Sobyanin’s opponents were not entirely unprepared for this blitzkrieg.

       News that Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin would resign in order to run for the mayoral election in September came as quite a shock. Indeed, the idea was probably to catch potential rivals Mikhail Prokhorov and Alexey Navalny off guard.

       Political analysts who think this was a smart move cite polls showing Sobyanin at the peak of his popularity, proving that he will easily defeat his rivals. That said, this political ploy to call early elections with unprepared candidates does not reflect well on the Moscow or federal authorities.

       Moreover, Sobyanin’s political potential is fairly dubious, not to mention his approval ratings. He has not finished many of the projects he initiated and the electoral effect from these projects is expected to come a bit later than September 2013.

       Also, Sobyanin’s potential opponents were not entirely unprepared for this blitzkrieg. Prokhorov, for one, does not need to raise funds or form a team – he has all of that and more from his run for the presidency.

       As for Navalny, he’s very popular on the Internet and is known in Moscow as an audacious opponent of the authorities. He could make Sobyanin very nervous by publishing some “damaging evidence.” Moreover, Navalny’s trial is not yet over, which means he can register as a candidate. Trying an officially registered candidate does not look great.

       The leak about Sobyanin’s impending resignation was meant to reveal the names of his potential rivals, analyze their level of preparation, gauge their media capabilities, and so on and so forth.

       Sobyanin stepped down as expected. Indicatively, he had discussed the prospects of his resignation with Moscow’s Public Chamber rather than United Russia’s regional branch, which of course was noted by observers.

       Sobyanin’s technical resignation has faced the opposition with a choice – a feather in the hand (Moscow City Duma elections) or a bird in the air (the mayoral election). Some will rush for the bird in the air and lose, yielding the city’s parliament to United Russia again.

       But parliamentary parties have taken the challenge seriously and intend to invest substantial resources in the mayoral election. Thus, the Communist Party has nominated Ivan Melnikov, a serious candidate, as its candidate for mayor.

       The Republican Party of Russia – People's Freedom Party (RPR-PARNAS) has recommended that its Moscow branch nominate Alexei Navalny (the idea was suggested by Ilya Yashin).

       The following politicians have also expressed a desire to run for mayor: Yabloko leader Sergei Mitrokhin; Left Front coordinator Sergei Udaltsov (he asked the Investigative Committee to allow him to personally submit an application for the nomination); lead singer of Corrosion of Metal Sergei “Spider” Troitsky; and Prefect of Moscow’s North Administrative Area Oleg Mitvol. The race will be hard-fought although Sobyanin and Melnikov have the best chances.

       This will make for a potentially fascinating mayoral election, and the opposition won’t have any grounds to claim that the “Kremlin candidate” won a pseudo-victory.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.