Persistent coronavirus concerns among D.C.-area residents and growth in remote work during the pandemic could temporarily dampen a comeback of downtown Washington and other busy commercial districts in the region.
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About 4 in 10 area residents express virus-related concerns about attending crowded indoor gatherings, along with live performances, sporting events and movies in theaters, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll released Friday. A smaller share, about 2 in 10, say they are concerned about dining indoors, while roughly 1 in 10 residents are hesitant about eating outside at a restaurant over coronavirus concerns.
Virus-related hesitancy to get back to social lives could drag on the economic harm to a central business district reeling from a pandemic that has siphoned off downtown workers and emptied streets. The survey indicates the region’s recovery may occur slowly, in large part because Washington is cautious about resuming normal activities while also being home to a large share of employees able to reduce in-person work schedules.
Read more about the poll here.
Nearly half (48 percent) of area workers have teleworked in the past month, according to the Washington Post-Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University poll, and more than half want to continue to telework at least some of the time. With a larger population working remotely, fewer people and less money would come to dense commercial areas that rely on a steady stream of people coming into the city.
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The survey results also indicate any delay in downtown’s economic rebound could be temporary: A clear majority of area residents say they eventually will resume activities such as going out to eat and partaking in entertainment and cultural offerings at the same rate as before the pandemic — largely indicating a desire to return to normal. That sentiment was echoed in follow-up interviews with several poll respondents.
Eugene Stevanus, of Northwest Washington, said he and his family miss Washington’s cultural events and dining options. They get carryout or use outdoor seating, but he couldn’t recall the last time they dined indoors.
“I have no sense of when we’re going to be able to go the theater again or watch live music,” said Stevanus, 56, who works in Adams Morgan. “I would love to do these things, but it does not seem, right now, like this is on the immediate horizon. At least for me and my family, I don’t see it quite yet.”
About 7 in 10 residents say they eventually will go to ticketed sporting events and visit the Mall or museums at about the same rate as before the pandemic. About the same share say they will go to movies, live performances, restaurants and bars nearly as often as before.
But there are indications the pandemic will change how some people spend their time and money outside their homes. About 2 in 10 residents say they plan to make meals at home more often, while a similar share say they will reduce Metro trips and go to movie theaters less often.
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The surge of the delta variant has exacerbated uncertainty, prompting some residents to take a step back and reconsider their activities. Economists are projecting the surge could result in another hit to struggling businesses.
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“The underlying cause of this recession and the main driver of the recovery is the health crisis. And so in order for a very robust recovery to happen, it needs to be very clear that the health crisis locally, and even nationally, is under control,” said Jeannette Chapman, director of the Schar School’s Stephen S. Fuller Institute at George Mason University.
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The Washington region has about 170,000 — or about 5 percent — fewer jobs than in June 2019, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of June, the area had recovered 55 percent of jobs lost during the pandemic, according to the Fuller Institute.
To accelerate the recovery, city leaders are ramping up the message that the nation’s capital is open for business. D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) on Tuesday marked the reopening of the Walter E. Washington Convention Center, announcing two conventions this month that will draw about 15,000 people each.
The reopening of the convention center, which was turned into a mass vaccination site, comes days after D.C. reinstituted a mask mandate because of rising concerns over the highly transmissible delta variant.
Bowser called it “a big part of the recovery” to bring back convention tourists. While a record 24.6 million people visited the nation’s capital in 2019, projections this year call for roughly 15 million visitors, according to Destination DC, the nonprofit organization tasked with marketing the city. It could be 2025 before tourism recovers to pre-pandemic levels, according to the group’s estimates.
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“We want to welcome everybody back,” Bowser said at the convention center, surrounded by masked business and elected leaders.
But even as the city sees signs of a rebound downtown, the Post-Schar School poll finds life is far from normal for many Washingtonians. About 2 in 10 area residents say they are fully back to their normal pre-pandemic lives and another roughly 3 in 10 say they are mostly back to normal, but nearly half say they are either partly or barely returned to normal.
About a quarter of residents say they will be back to normal within three months and another third say it will happen within the next year. The survey indicates a top issue keeping the region from normalcy is a lack of child care.
Detailed crosstabs available here.
The expectation that most children will return to the classroom this fall could help accelerate the transition. About half of working parents in the D.C. region say supporting their child’s education has made working more difficult. Four in 10 say other child-care responsibilities have had the same effect.
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For Alice Goldring of Northeast Washington, a return to normal will depend largely on control of the pandemic. She said it may be months before she feels comfortable going out downtown.
The 58-year-old D.C. government employee commutes by car to work in Southwest Washington and rarely goes anywhere else unless it’s outdoors. She tried dining inside restaurants after the city lifted some restrictions in May, but she took a step back last month when coronavirus cases began to rise again.
“With the delta variant, I’m concerned about everything,” she said. “I’m not trying to put myself in a position where I could get it even though I am vaccinated.”
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The survey paints a picture of the activities area residents are willing to do — and those they are nervous about — amid the health crisis. It also shows stark differences in the pace at which people of various racial, political and economic backgrounds move toward normalcy.
The most common activity was taking care of one’s health: 81 percent of D.C.-area residents have visited a doctor or dentist in the past three months. Just 3 percent of residents avoided doctor visits because of coronavirus risks.
Among possible leisure activities, residents are most likely to have dined out. About 7 in 10 have eaten at a restaurant indoors (73 percent) and outdoors (70 percent) in the past three months.
About a quarter (26 percent) say they have exercised in a gym or taken an indoor group class in the past three months, while 37 percent say they haven’t because of coronavirus concerns. Women are more concerned about participating in indoor gym classes (47 percent) than men (28 percent).
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Meanwhile, only 1 in 10 area residents have attended a live sporting event or live performance or concert in the past three months and roughly 2 in 10 have gone to a movie theater during that time. About 4 in 10 people in the region who haven’t done these activities cite coronavirus concerns.
“It seems like a lot of people are just behaving on the basis of a risk-reward ratio and making rational decisions,” said Mark J. Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason. “Three percent won’t go to the doctor, but everybody else goes. So everybody knows there’s some risk of getting covid if you go to the doctor but not going is a bigger risk.”
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The analysis was based on data from The Post-Schar School poll, which surveyed a random sample of 1,000 adults living in the Washington area and was conducted by telephone July 6 to July 21. Results have a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points for the overall sample. A half sample was asked questions about activities they have done and their coronavirus concerns if they haven’t; those results have an error margin of six points. And the sample of over 600 workers has an error margin of five points.
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The survey shows about 7 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they have mostly or fully returned to normal (72 percent), compared with 46 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.
White residents are more likely to have eaten indoors at a restaurant in the past three months (84 percent) than Black residents (62 percent). Those with incomes of at least $75,000 also are more likely to have eaten indoors (82 percent) than those with lower incomes (62 percent).
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The comeback could be driven by cooped-up younger residents, who are more likely to say they plan to partake in more social activities than before the pandemic.
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By more than a 2-to-1 margin, adults under 40 in the area say they will attend ticketed sporting events more frequently than their older counterparts. They also are twice as likely to say they expect to attend live concerts and performances, go to restaurants and bars and take Metro more frequently post-pandemic.
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But younger adults also see reasons to stay in: Those under 40 are more likely to say they plan to increase their frequency of cooking at home (31 percent) than those 40 and older (18 percent).
Eliza Poggi, 20, a rising junior at Yale University who spent the past school year taking classes from her home in Chevy Chase, Md., said she is looking forward to returning to campus this fall, as well as life after the pandemic.
“My friends and I are looking at concerts and thinking about when we should be buying tickets and things like that,” Poggi said. “We’re very excited to start going out more. But we’re also still being a little cautious.”