This year the International Day of Democracy almost coincided with the 20th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s disintegration – an event that has exerted an enormous influence on the role and place of democracy in the world. At the same time, a real drama is unfolding in the Middle East.

       The collapse of authoritarian regimes (which seem to be concentrated in the Middle East as nowhere else) is ushering in an era of democracy in the region. Some analysts believe this will propel the Arab world out of stagnation, whereas others expect chaos and unpredictability.

       How has democracy influenced the world in the last 20 years?

       First, authoritarian regimes have gone out of fashion. Various forms of democratic rule have become established in Latin America, East and South-East Asia and many African countries, not to mention Eurasia. Those governments that still continue to rule by undemocratic means are at least trying to maintain a fa？ade of democracy. No state has the temerity to boast about its autocracy or to insist that it is leading the country to progress. China occupies a special position. While firmly preserving its centralized system, it acknowledges that a democratic system is its eventual aim.

       Second, a period of upheavals during which the West (the United States) believed that nations could be brought to democracy by force is all but over. The events of the 2000s in Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine provide scant consolation. And this only proves that classical liberal thought was right – democracy is a delicate plant that grows only in well fertilized soil that has been prepared for ages. The future of the Arab Spring is likely to provide more arguments supporting this idea.

       Third, the examples of countries, primarily Asian, have called into doubt the immutability of yet another liberal axiom: democracy is the guarantee of economic progress and the sine qua non of the market economy. These countries have made very small democratic injections but achieved impressive economic success, surpassing Western countries in terms of growth. Moreover, the need to consider the opinion of the voters, which is indispensable for any democracy, often prevents democratic governments from making unpopular but essential economic decisions, whereas those that can afford to act without looking over their shoulders have made serious strides. Moreover, democratic control is not always a guarantee against stupid moves and mistakes, as shown by the complex economic problems that have piled up in the U.S. and Europe over the past 20 years.

       Fourth, democracy, or to be more precise, continuous feedback between the ruling class and the public still helps consolidate stability. Otherwise, even the most advanced regimes start losing a sense of reality. If this happens, tensions escalate within societies and countries and immediately interact with outside factors of the global environment – this rule has no exceptions. This interaction may turn out to be not only dangerous but, as the Arab Spring shows, even fatal for regimes that seemed strong only yesterday. Therefore, domestic harmony, which relies on streamlined relations between government and society, is an indispensable condition.

       Fifth, open society, which has reached it apogee in the era of global communications, is capable not only of promoting democracy but also of rendering it pointless by turning information into an object of intricate manipulation. This can be willful manipulation, or the result of a chaotic flood of information that cannot be presented in a structured fashion and the authenticity of which cannot be verified.

       In the late 20th century, the concept of democracy had its historic triumph. In the 21st century, it will have to adapt to its consequences.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.