PETALING JAYA: Bursa Malaysia Bhd’s average daily trading volumes (ADV) could remain weak over the near term, before picking up towards end-2021 in anticipation of economic activities to rebound in 2022, according to Maybank Investment Bank (IB) Research.

       The research unit noted that ADV had weakened to RM3.4bil in June till July 8, compared with RM4.2bil and RM4bil in April and May respectively.

       This was likely due to concerns over the macro impact of the lockdowns and political uncertainties.

       The pullback was across all investor segments as retail, domestic institutions and foreign participation was still at 39%, 44% and 17% respectively in June till July 8, similar to January to May 2021.

       Positively, derivative volume surged in June to 1.94 million contracts (contributed by FCPO or Crude Palm Oil Futures), lifting second quarter volume to 4.79 million contracts (20% higher year-on-year or y-o-y, 1% lower quarter-on-quarter) and first-half volume to 9.61 million contracts (2% higher y-o-y).

       Maybank IB Research said its earlier RM4.5bil ADV forecast for 2021 is no longer realistic and thus, has lowered it to RM3.8bil, which implies RM3.2bil in the second half of 2021.

       The research unit has also lowered the 2022 estimated ADV to RM3.7bil (from RM4.6bil), expecting sentiment to improve as economic activities rebound after 80% of the population is vaccinated by end-2021.

       Alongside its earnings cut, Maybank IB Research has also lowered its dividend per share forecast, assuming a 91% to 92% dividend payout ratio.

       Maybank IB Research also pointed out that there was potential for higher dividends, with cash reserves building up.