The US presidential election campaign began in the summer of 2015. This presidential race is quite extraordinary and, in some ways, unique.
Hillary Clinton has been the steady leader in the Democratic Party since 2013. A rightist conservative wing known as the Tea Party (named after the ideals of the Boston Tea Party) was the Republican Party’s response to President Obama’s left-wing liberal anti-crisis policy, which markedly polarized American society. On top of this, only six politicians have expressed their presidential ambitions on behalf of the Democrats (including Vice President Joseph Biden, who is still undecided), whereas the Republicans have already fielded 17 candidates, including, in addition to politicians, the notorious businessman Donald Trump, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Hewlett Packard's top manager Carly Fiorina and several other candidates whose career paths lie far from politics.
In conducting a preliminary analysis of the election campaign in the United States, it is imperative to focus not only on public opinion polls, but on other aspects as well. Popularity and voter support are, of course, important, but they are by far not the only factors that could lead to victory in the presidential campaign. Also important are the financial resources of the candidates, their political strategists and consultants, their political expertise and their support from other politicians and renowned people, to name a few. Clearly, fundraising during the campaign is prone to acts of corruption, so it is under public scrutiny. Over the history of presidential campaigns since the 1960s, the candidate who managed to raise more funds than others almost always won the race. American law provides institutional and organizational tools for collecting donations, and presidential candidates are required to provide public reports on every cent that they receive and spend.
Certain predictions can be made about the prospects of each participant based on open-source data. At the current early stage of the campaign, this dependence is very strong, as the candidates’ popularity fluctuates depending on the amount of funds that they have raised.
Hillary Clinton is the most popular Democratic candidate and deserves a special mention, since the idea of her running for president originated more than 10 years ago. Hillary Clinton ran [for the Democratic nomination] in 2008, but lost to Barack Obama, and agreed to head the State Department. Today, it has become clear that after completing her diplomatic career, she has set her sights on winning the 2016 presidential race. Reportedly, together with Bill Clinton, she has managed to raise several hundred million dollars. She began her official campaign in June and has raised $45 million in a matter of just two months, despite the fact that 90 percent of donations were under $100. Hillary Clinton relies on massive financial support provided by a variety of American businesses. She also plans to use funds raised through the Clinton Foundation.
Bernie Sanders is the second most popular Democratic candidate. During his long political career, he represented the state of Vermont in the Senate and Congress. His second senate term expires in 2019.
Notably, Bernie Sanders was able to raise a significant sum in the amount of $15 million, which puts him second behind the former first lady. Even if he can maintain this pace of fundraising, which many analysts doubt, this is unlikely to help him surpass Hillary Clinton. Strictly speaking, Sanders is not a member of the Democratic Party. He is positioning himself as an independent. According to the American political tradition, which, albeit, is rarely abided by, Sanders made a deal with the Democratic leaders in the Senate that in return for leadership positions in various committees, he will let himself be referred to as a Democrat. He is entitled to vote as he wishes, but his opinion almost always coincides with the position of the Democratic Party. Compared to other modern American politicians, Sanders could be called a socialist.
Recent polls show that Hillary Clinton is losing the support of her voters in favor of Sanders. In the key state of New Hampshire, for example, his rating is higher than hers. It’s unlikely that this trend will continue, although US policy is known for being unpredictable.
The events may take an interesting turn if incumbent Vice-President Joseph Biden decides to run. In August, he announced that he was holding consultations and would announce his decision in October. If he decides to run, his chances will still be slim, because it’s unlikely he will have enough time to gain the necessary social and financial support, which his opponents from both the Democratic and Republican parties already have. In addition, he’s very close to Hillary Clinton ideologically and is unlikely to be able to attract a significant portion of her voters. Some go as far as to offer a conspiracy theory, according to which his participation will be used to steal votes from Sanders and other democratic candidates, and, at the last moment, Biden will step aside for Hillary Clinton. No wonder the information about his possible participation came to light shortly after Hillary Clinton’s ratings went below those of Bernie Sanders.
Things are very different in the Republican Party. The Tea Party enjoys fairly broad support in Congress. Unlike Democrats, the Republican camp doesn’t have a clear leader.
The skyrocketing increase in Donald Trump’s popularity is phenomenal. He’s one of the most controversial American businessmen, and occupies the 405th place on the Forbes list. Just a couple of weeks after announcing his presidential ambitions, his rankings soared from near zero to 25-30 percent. Clearly, his financial capabilities exceed those of all other Republican candidates. Even though Trump said that he doesn’t need donations, his campaign headquarters, Make America Great Again, is raising quite impressive amounts of money. First, experts were skeptical about Trump's chances as a presidential candidate, but after a number of statements that he made, his growing popularity and the newly available information about his team, point the idea that he’s serious about his plans.
Jeb Bush – the son and brother of two recent American presidents – also deserves a special mention. He is Donald Trump’s No. 1 opponent. Their competition during the presidential race in 2016 will be just a follow-up to their long-standing political and economic face-off.
In the political life of the United States, Jeb Bush is well-known as the Florida governor. He owes his popularity to the political activities of his father and brother. Jeb Bush’s name was mentioned during each election campaign run by George Walker Bush and George Herbert Bush. Even though Jeb Bush said he is committed to the Tea Party’s ideals, his positions are more moderate in comparison with other Republican candidates. In particular, he offers much less radical solutions to the most pressing issues in America, such as illegal immigration, the right to bear arms and abortion.
For a long time, Bush was ahead of all the other Republican candidates, but he gave way to Donald Trump in recent weeks. However, it is very likely that he will be able to catch up and possibly overtake his primary rival. First, reportedly, Bush has a team of highly qualified experts with a long service record in US policy, who have worked with all the recent Republican administrations. Second, after he left the governor’s office, Jeb Bush purposefully engaged in raising funds for his political campaign and, in recent weeks, though he’s still behind Donald Trump, he’s made good progress compared with all the other Republican candidates.
It is very likely that the final fight for the White House will unfold between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush. If this happens, a unique situation will then take place: each candidate will have family ties with former US presidents. Of course, Jeb Bush will have to deal with his brother’s legacy. Recently, he has already tried to disassociate himself from the foreign policy carried out by his older brother, although he will clearly be held accountable for his policies. Hillary Clinton will take heat for the policy of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama and, perhaps, for supporting numerous initiatives by G.W. Bush in fighting terrorism and the invasion of Iraq. In any case, the unfolding presidential campaign in the United States will be fun to follow, rich in political intrigue and unexpected turns of events.
Making more detailed forecasts is premature, since the race has just begun. Any number of things could happen in the next 18 months that could radically change the course of the campaign.
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.