This time there will be no Cold War. Most likely, we are entering an era of a classical diplomacy backed up by power. There will be no “final and decisive” battle, just another conflict of interests followed by a pause and new trench wars. Nuclear deterrence will prevent us from sliding into a big war.

       Claims by the White House that Russia and its president bear responsibility for the plane crash in Ukraine means that Washington has chosen conflict over compromise in its dealings with Moscow. Given the hostile ambiguity surrounding Russian-US relations over the past 15 years, the newfound clarity about Washington’s true intentions is welcome. This realization will aid Russian planning not only in the West, but, more importantly, in the East.

       I don’t think this new era of international politics can and should be called a new Cold War. First, unlike in the second half of the 20th century, the confrontation will not be between two poles. The conflict is between a relatively united West and the rest of the world, which is completely fragmented and unlikely to ever become as consolidated and orderly as the United States and its allies. None of the leading countries outside of the West are likely to ever claim unquestioned leadership or be seen as unquestioned leaders in the near future.

       But our opponents are not a monolith. European companies, reluctant to forgo the huge profits from trade with Russia, are rebelling. Japan and South Korea don’t see Russia as a threat, either. On the contrary, they dream of supplanting China as Russia’s economic partner in the development of the Russian Far East and Siberia. Only Anglo-Saxon states, such as Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada, remain relatively dependable.

       Second, talk of a new Cold War suggests that there will be a “final and decisive” battle between good and evil. This thought depresses the public in Russia and engenders fear of failure, since we lost the previous battle. They won, and that makes them confident and hungry for another faceoff. It’s no accident that even quite reasonable and respectable members of the Russian intelligentsia have been so restless lately. They are afraid of losing again.

       The stakes today are also different from those in 1946-1991. Unlike the Soviet Union, Russia does not seek a global victory. Our goals are to assert our right to conduct an independent foreign policy and to ensure that there is minimal foreign influence along our perimeter, using integration and cooperation to achieve this without being intimidated by shows of force. The US is also pursuing the tactical goal of weakening Russia as a factor in America's future campaign against China. This fight is drawing closer as Asian countries are increasingly turning inward, seeking to be more than just a factory for their former masters. They are increasing domestic consumption and the quality of their own products. Simply put, Asia wants to close the book on the era of colonial division, which separated the world into the center and the periphery.

       This time there will be no Cold War. Most likely, we are entering an era of a classical diplomacy backed up by power. There will be no “final and decisive” battle, just another conflict of interests followed by a pause and new trench wars. Nuclear deterrence – the only positive legacy of the 20th century for relations between peoples – will prevent us from sliding into a big war.

       The 20th century is finally over, and so are its linear philosophy about history and the idea of a fight to the end. Of the remaining legacy of the 20th century, the relatively neutral international institutions and forums it begat will be the first to fade into oblivion. The OSCE – which the United States and the European Union wield with the grace of a Neanderthal to promote their interests – will become utterly irrelevant.

       In five to seven years, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, which the United States and China see from diametrically opposite viewpoints, will likely break up. And the West’s monopoly on major decision-making will finish off whatever is left of international governance, such as global economic institutions. The G20 may collapse as well.

       The worst legacy of the 20th century – nationalism and dragging regular people in international conflicts – will vanish along with these obsolete organizations. It’s imperative to prevent every conflict from turning into a major patriotic war. The interests of states have always clashed. They have seized territory from each other and even waged wars. But these conflicts were never about brutalizing ordinary citizens in the warring countries. We will have to lock away the demon of nationalism if humanity is to survive this new era of power diplomacy, and make international politics a matter for diplomats and soldiers again.

       This article was originally published in Russian in Izvestia newspaper.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.