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Rachel Reeves ‘disastrous’ economic policies are likely to trigger a damaging recession which in turn risks pushing national debt past 100% of GDP, a banking expert has warned.
Bob Lyddon was speaking yesterday, before the Labour Government insisted there was "no need for an emergency intervention" as it sought to soothe concerns over the UK's shaky financial markets.
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On Thursday, the value of the pound fell to its lowest level in over a year while UK borrowing costs jumped to their highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
Uncertainty over fiscal stability and wider global pressures caused sterling to weaken, with the pound falling nearly 1% to just below $1.23 - its lowest level since November 2023 before ticking back up in the afternoon. At the close of trading, it was down 0.58% compared with the previous day.
Mr Lyddon, founder of Lyddon Consulting Services, has issued frequent warnings about the Chancellor’s strategy since Labour’s general election victory in July, 2024.
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Rachel Reeves in the House of Commons yesterday (Image: X)
He told Express.co.uk: "lt is unfolding here in the UK as predicted, beginning with the disastrous 30-year gilt auction yesterday where the government is going to have to pay 5.19% on the ￡2.25 billion raised, and today 4.49% on ￡4.25 billion of 5-year money."
As of yesterday, the 30-year gilt yields 5.42%, up another 0.23% in a day, Mr Lyddon stressed.
He continued: "Whoever was foolish enough to buy in yesterday has already lost 7% of their money."
With interest rates still going up and inflation rising, job vacancies down, a poor Christmas for retail, pubs and restaurants shutting down, and reports of widespread redundancies in the pipeline, the start to the New Year "could scarcely have been worse", Mr Lyddon emphasised.
Darren Jones, pictured with Chancellor Rachel Reeves (Image: Getty)
He warned: "This is not a good scenario for tax receipts, although there is a delay factor built in. The Self-Assessment of tax owed and the payment of it occurs at the end of January, normally providing a boost for the government's coffers, and luckily for Starmer and Reeves it is the tax year April 2023-2024 that this relates to, before the current downturn they have manufactured."
In addition, companies and individuals had taken steps before Ms Reeves' October Budget to realise capital gains and "otherwise shuffle their wealth around" because they thought a particular tax was going to rise, Mr Lyddon pointed out.
He added: "It may or may not have done, but some tax will become payable on the back of their actions and there will be a temporary upwards blip in tax receipts."
However, there are stormy times ahead, Mr Lyddon predicted.
The expert explained: "The impact of the bigger tax rises announced in the Budget only makes itself felt from April onwards, such as higher Employer National Insurance Contributions.
"This means that tax receipts will hold up for the time being, whilst expenditure races ahead against a short-lived, relatively flattering picture of the public finances."
However, he fears an incoming recession would scupper that.
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He cautioned: "We can expect to see the national debt exceed 100% of GDP. Once we have a recession, which is all but inevitable, we have the prospect of tax revenues levelling off or falling, with debt continuing to rise as GDP falls.
"Then you are looking at a 'Public sector net debt’ of 110% of the size of the economy, and no number of bogus reductions - student loans being the most ludicrous - will be able to disguise the mess. In reality a number of additions to the 110% would be in order."
All Ms Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer had to offer against that was "a repetition of vacuous platitudes”, such as that the economy would grow because they were planning to borrow more money and start spending immediately, Mr Lyddon claimed.
He said: "They seem to think they can run the economy on the same principles as discount furniture: buy now, pay a whole lot later, with an APR going up and up.
"The UK public might soon wake up to the realisation that these two know nothing about financial management.”
Treasury Minister Darren Jones told MPs in Parliament today: "In recent months, moves in financial markets have been largely driven by data and geopolitical events, which is to be expected as markets adjust to new information.
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"UK gilt markets continue to function in an orderly way and underlying demand for the UK's debt remains strong."
He stressed the Government witnessed strong demand in its latest tranche of planned gilt sales on Wednesday.
Mr Jones also defended the Chancellor after calls from the opposition benches that she should halt a planned to trip to China to appear before Parliament.
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In response to a question, he said: "There is no need for any emergency intervention and there hasn't been one."
Shadow chancellor Mel Stride replied: "Despite what Mr Jones says about international factors, the premium on our borrowing costs compared to German bonds recently hit its highest level since 1990.
"With these rising costs, regrettably the Government may now be on course to breach their fiscal rules and the Chancellor has committed to no further tax rises."