New Arab elites will need Russia’s support. This primarily applies to Islamist parties whose agendas include relations with Russia – they need them at least as a counterbalance to the West. Mistrust of the West, serious disagreements, the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict in general and Israel’s actions in the region in particular are making Russia a useful partner and ally in some issues.

       Vitaly Naumkin, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and author of the report “Transformation in the Arab World and Russia’s Interests,” shares his views on recent events in the Middle East and the results of the Arab Spring.

       Is the Arab Spring over?

       The first phase of the Arab Spring is over. This phase saw uprisings in six out of the 22 Arab countries, leading to quick and unexpected regime change in some of them. Today, the surprise factor is no longer at work – protest movements and street demonstrations have become a global phenomenon. They are taking place both in the West and the East, Russia included. But the first phase is over and no more regimes will be toppled by street action.

       Arab regimes are now ready to resist pressure from the street and serious upheavals can only be caused by very intricate domestic conflicts. Some regimes have protected themselves with reforms, albeit they are no more than a facelift. Protests were gaining momentum in two kingdoms, Jordan and Morocco, but they were stopped. In some Gulf countries, the budding protest movements were extinguished by huge financial injections. In Bahrain, the government resorted to reprisals.

       It is unclear whether new conflicts will arise. I don’t think we should expect stability in the near future, because the Arab Spring is not yet over in the countries where it began. Egypt is bound to become a scene of acute political strife. To sum up, on the whole, the first phase of the Arab Spring is over. It was characterized by an unexpected outpouring of energy from the streets and mosques, the support of Islamic organizations and youth enthusiasm.

       How should Russia develop relations with the new elites that are coming to power?

       There is no point in pulling one’s hair out, thinking that Russia has lost everything and that Arabs don’t want to deal with it, as some journalists are doing. Indeed, some new elites are more Western-oriented; others are unhappy about Moscow’s consistent position on Syria. However, I think the new elites will need Russia’s support. This primarily applies to Islamist parties whose agendas include relations with Russia – they need them at least as a counterbalance to the West. Mistrust of the West, serious disagreements, the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict in general and Israel’s actions in the region in particular are making Russia a useful partner and ally in some issues.

       Russia may have to wait out a chill in relations, but there is no doubt that it should build relations with political Islam and its parties. Moscow’s relations with the Muslim Brotherhood leave much to be desired.

       Will Russia continue supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime?

       The Russian government continues to declare its support for stability, national dialogue and a national unity government. It stands for avoiding a civil war. This cannot be described as full support for the regime. It would be more accurate to say that Russia is promoting peaceful regime change and encouraging the regime to start talks with the opposition. I think Moscow will continue this policy.

       Why has Kofi Annan’s plan failed?

       Considerable outside forces are lined up against the plan. The recent violence, which occurred lately and even on the eve of Annan’s report, was most likely provoked by those who wanted to prove that his plan cannot work and that intervention is necessary.

       What long-term consequences will the transformation in the Arab world have on the global and regional scale?

       One of the recent changes is the regional balance of power. Some countries have enhanced their positions, like Turkey, while others have lost their former influence. Another consequence is the widening of the Sunni-Shia divide, which will affect the entire Muslim world. This will be followed by the consolidation of Islamic political regimes – there is a trend towards the rise of Islamic parties to power from Morocco to Afghanistan.

       New factors are also coming into play. Previously, new rulers could only rely on their entourage, but now this model has become a thing of the past. It is abundantly clear that the latest crop of new rulers will try to understand what brings their people into the street.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.