This first round of elections completely reshaped the French political landscape with the emergence of a tri-polar political system, with the right and center-right forces represented by Nicolas Sarkozy, the National Front under the leadership of Marine Le Pen, and the socialists with their allies.

       Arnaud Dubien, the head of the Observatory French-Russian Analytical Center of the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, on the results of the March 22 departmental elections in France.

       On March 22, the first round of the elections to the Departmental Councils was held across France’s 99 departments, an administrative division between the region and the commune. Voter turnout exceeded all expectations reaching about 50 percent. The second round will take place next Sunday, March 29. Although we’ll have to wait until then for the final results, a number of fascinating and important observations can already be made.

       This first round of elections completely reshaped the French political landscape with the emergence of a tri-polar political system, with the right and center-right forces represented by Nicolas Sarkozy, the National Front under the leadership of Marine Le Pen, and the socialists with their allies. Until the elections, a left-right divide had dominated French politics, but now the National Front represents about a quarter of the vote and an alliance with the right is not on the horizon.

       The vote also bolstered Sarkozy. In fact, many were disappointed when he returned to politics in the fall of 2014, including his supporters. It seemed as though he had lost his charm as a leader and failed to offer a new narrative or ideas. With about 35 percent in the first round, which is expected to be confirmed next Sunday, the center-right and right forces headed by Sarkozy won an “unexpected victory.” These results have strengthened Sarkozy’s position after a seemingly failed comeback, which is important, given that he makes little secret of his intention to run for president in 2017.

       As for the National Front, the election results are a sign that the party is becoming increasingly strong and taking root on the local level. This is a new trend as the National Front used to succeed only on the national level by capitalizing on the charisma of its original leader (Marine Le Pen was preceded by her farther, Jean-Marie Le Pen). That said, the 25 percent the party garnered on March 22 is a disappointment for Marine Le Pen, since all the polls predicted that the National Front would take first place. She has now been denied the right to proclaim that the National Front is France’s number one party.

       One of the key takeaways from the March 22 vote is that the National Front wave can be halted, while until recently it seemed that it would submerge everyone.

       The second takeaway is that the voting results for the socialists and their allies were not as bad as expected (a “resounding defeat” was expected).

       The Socialist Party and its government ally, the so-called left radicals, who in fact represent the center-left, won about 26-27 per cent of the vote. What this means is that Francois Hollande and the new Prime Minister Manuel Valls are holding the line quite well. Francois Hollande can still carry the 2017 presidential election despite his poor popularity, if he is able to make it into the runoff with Marine Le Pen (in France, only two candidates compete in the second round), even if such a prospect may now seem unlikely.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.