My first reaction to what took place at last Saturday’s United Russia convention was mild surprise as this arrangement was made without in any way involving the public. The only query I have, now that this “Putin-Medvedev swap” has been announced, is: why is Russia bothering to hold elections next March?

       The reality remains as follows: the President is appointed first, and only later is elected. It seems that the President is self-appointed, and afterwards elected. This means that the concept of there being alternatives is completely absent from Russia’s political tradition.

       Musing on the coming 2012-2018 6-year term proves less than gripping. We should keep in mind the period from 1999, the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s rule, and 2024. To some extent, an entire generation of Russian history will be under the supervision of Vladimir Vladimirovich (Putin).

       I also think that this change in mandate duration is also an important evolution. So now we should think about Russia’s future through 2024. Is this good for Russian modernization? It is very difficult to predict at this stage. I think that there is certain negative reaction in Russia regarding this arrangement. At the same time, Mr. Putin is still very popular, perhaps because there is no real opposition that has consistent access to the mainstream media. But the problem is that the situation in Russia in 2011 is fundamentally different from that of 2000 when Putin was first elected.

       The problem lies with the reaction of the nascent middle classes, which may become apparent over the next 5-6 years, and there is certainly a high risk of Russia’s political development stagnating.

       There will be certain consequences stemming from the decision announced at the convention. For example, Alexei Kudrin’s resignation is very important and deserves to be noted, as does the ongoing tension with Mikhail Prokhorov. We can expect to see many similar things transpire over the next few months.

       There is certainly an intangible but important generational element. These two men are the only living individuals, since the death of Boris Yeltsin, who have held such elevated posts as President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. These positions come not only with great honor but with bodyguards and all the trappings of power. It seems logical that Dmitry Medvedev will continue to be a high-profile political figure. Does this mean that he would be an efficient Prime Minister, able to discharge his duties? Perhaps the next time a Prime Minister is appointed, the task will fall to Vladimir Putin. Maybe some day he will feel the need for a change? I am not sure that Dmitry Medvedev will remain in office as Prime Minister for the next 6 years, further changes cannot be ruled out.

       As for the West’s attitude, let’s wait until the end of the U.S. Presidential election. If Obama is re-elected, we should not anticipate any radical changes. If a Republican candidate wins, we can expect relations between the U.S. and Russia to worsen. The situation regarding Europe is rather different. Russia and the EU have very strong links. At the same time, there are some serious problems within the European Union, and this is why we are unlikely to see any significant change in the EU’s Russia strategy over the next 2-3 years. Once the situation within the EU improves then we may well see some changes, but the status quo looks set to continue for the time being, at least.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.