Rishi Sunak's fortunes are tied to those of Lord Ben Houchen, said Andy Preston (Image: Getty)
Rishi Sunak could be ousted in weeks if the Tories lose one crucial electoral contest today, the former mayor of Middlesbrough has predicted.
Andy Preston, who served in the post as an independent from 2019-23, singled out the battle between incumbent Tees Valley mayor Lord Houchen and Chris McEwan as one to watch.
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And he believes defeat for the incumbent would be a shattering blow for the Prime Minister - and a clear indication that Labour was on course to reclaim the so-called red wall in the next general election.
Lord Houchen was elected in 2017, narrowly defeating Labour’s Sue Jeffrey. He was re-elected in 2021, this time taking almost 73 percent of the vote against Labour's Jessie Joe Jacobs.
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However, today’s contest is predicted to be a much closer affair, with YouGov polls before Thursday putting Lord Houchen’s lead over Mr McEwan at just seven points (51-44).
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Andy Street, the Tory Mayor for West Midlands, campaigns in advance of today's vote (Image: Getty)
Tees Valley, alongside West Midlands, where Tory Andy Street is facing off against Richard Parker in another tight election, is regarded as an important weathervane contest prior to a nationwide poll later this year.
Mr Preston, who was narrowly beaten by Labour’s Chris Cooke by less than 800 votes last year, said: “The mayoral elections in West Midlands and Tees Valley is a massive national issue that could decide who our future prime minister is in 10 days' time when there could be a leadership challenge.
“The fate of the Conservative Government hangs in the hands of whether Andy Street, Mayor for the West Midlands and Lord Ben Houchen, Mayor for Tees Valley, are re-elected this Thursday."
He said the polls before Thursday's polling day were "still very close", adding: "Take Tees Valley in particular, Houchen three years ago conquered the Red Wall with Boris Johnson as PM.
Lord Ben Houchen led challenger Chris McEwan by seven points in Monday's YouGov poll (Image: YouGov)
“However, the picture today is very different nationally and locally in the North East and if Houchen loses against Chris McEwan and Labour reclaims that Red Wall in the region, then this will very likely be the end of the road for Rishi Sunak’s premiership.”
Mr Preston is a former Labour Party member, but nevertheless believes defeat would be a blow for the region.
Asked about Lord Houchen’s prospects of retaining what was traditionally a Labour heartland in the North East of England, he explained: “As the elected mayor of Middlesbrough between 2019 and 2023, and a former Labour activist who also works closely with Houchen, I believe that if we elect Chris McEwan then progress will stall.
“Houchen may not be perfect but he will make things happen and that’s what we need in Tees Valley. A region blighted by crime and deprivation, we need investment, development and innovation; we need a mayor like Houchen who is punchy, ambitious and takes swift action to bring game-changing regeneration projects that transform the city centres.”
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Mr Preston added: “Houchen, for example, will turbo-charge investment plans through the rapid action of the MDC (The Mayoral Development Corporation), whereas Labour is against this much needed Corporation.
“Our regional mayors have monstrous power and influence, as much as our Prime Minister.
"Who will be elected locally will be so significant to not only the fate of our government but the future prosperity of our country so it’s vital that all people locally use their vote.
“We need to view the local elections and the national elections through the same prism and go out and cast our votes on Thursday, May 2.
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"If Houchen stays, then there’s a glimmer of hope for Sunak.”
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Forecasts prior to today's election suggest the Tories could lose up to half of the council seats they are defending, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt saying the party expects to suffer "significant losses".
Most of the seats up for re-election were last contested in 2021, at the peak of Boris Johnson's popularity as the COVID-19 vaccine was rolled out.
A total of 11 mayoral contests are taking place, including in London, where Labour’s Sadiq Khan is squaring off against Tory challenger Susan Hall.
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