Looking at the Brexit issue optimistically, Reinhard Krumm, Head of the Central and Eastern Europe Department at the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation, told valdaiclub.com that the referendum should push the European Union toward more reform and reception to criticism. At the same time, the role of Germany will become more central, which would mean a new level of responsibility in its history.
In your view, will political integration within the EU continue, or will the populist view become more influential in determining future policy?
There is still a slight chance that Brexit won’t happen, but this chance is really very slim, so let’s assume that Brexit will really take place. No doubt, it is a huge blow for the European Union. If we go back in history, Great Britain always was reluctant to be part of the EU, there were always special conditions that PM Cameron tried to hammer out. The result is not good, but it does not mean that this is the end of the EU, which some countries would like to believe. It should be a signal to both sides, because all those politicians who were more or less in charge of Brexit are not really taking responsibility, they are just leaving the sinking ship. This is one of the signals to other countries, like the Netherlands, that are thinking of what to do.
Concerning the remaining EU members, they cannot just say “Too bad. This is a good organization, we should stay with it.” What they have to do is to think seriously if the EU should stay as an economic union or if it should become more than that. The reaction, which we have seen, for example, in Germany, partly, not entirely, is to say that we need a new plan. I would argue that we do not need a new plan, we have to reform. We have what we have, and we have to make it better. I do not see a disintegration yet, because the price Britain has to pay is now known to everyone, and there are very few answers from Great Britain to that. The pluses are still there, but the minuses, such as the refugees issue, which has to be improved, as well as the overwhelming bureaucracy, leave us serious signs. You can also see that some other countries are still interested in becoming members of the EU, and Great Britain has to find a role outside the EU.
Is there a chance for more referendums in other EU countries?
In the Netherlands, Mr. Geert Wilders already has said that he was very much interested in a referendum. Again, we have seen that populists as Mr. Boris Johnson and others are deserting the political field, even though responsibility is now much hoped for. The people now see that there is no plan whatsoever for what to do after Brexit or “Dutchexit.” There was a protest vote in Great Britain, not only against the EU, but also against the political elite in general, and now these people, who are unhappy with their government, should not mingle that with the EU. But that’s for politicians to say. I can see there will be other referendums coming up, but at the same time, the people will learn the lessons from the Brexit.
Should the EU move toward more political integration, or focus on the prospects of economic integration?
Before we had people thinking that we need to rearrange the EU, we need further integration, political unity. This will be extremely difficult at the moment. One should see what’s possible, considering the population of some countries in the EU, which are very unhappy with their political elite and again, they mingle that up with the elite and the politicians in Brussels. It would be extremely difficult to achieve a political union. First, there should be a reform within the EU structure, and there is a lot to do. The next step would be to think about going further. The reason for the EU's creation is still there, but there is also the understanding that each single country of the EU has a difficult situation during the time of globalization. Great Britain alone will have an immensely difficult position; the only chance for other EU states to prevail is to stay together. I hope that at some point, this argument will prevail.
Do you believe that popular support for the EU will depend on Britain’s performance after leaving the European Union?
Very much will depend on the performance of Great Britain. At the moment, there are signs that they will face extremely hard times. The effects are not yet clearly visible, but one of the ministers already said that taxes will be raised. Britain wants to leave the EU, but it also wants to have a good relationship with it - a special role, but outside the EU. This is not what Brexit was all about. The real Brexit or general exit from EU membership is a completely different situation, economically and politically. I think the British government under Mr. Cameron has not done the math. Because of that, at least this is my hope, because I am German and I strongly believe in the EU, other countries will see the difficulties and understand that this is not what they really want. At the same time, the EU has to listen to criticism toward itself. This is a huge problem, the EU is very much self-satisfied with itself, and this is not good. The Brexit might be the start of a good reform. This is the positive thinking; there could also be a disaster scenario, which I do not want to think about.
How will Germany’s role change after a potential Brexit, which would make the country more central to EU politics?
Germany, like it or not, will have a bigger role just because that is how it is, together with France. But, since Germany is economically well-off, that comes with a bigger political responsibility. The discussion in Germany on this matter is going on for quite a while, as you know. The ideal option was to have it together with Britain and France. Now Britain has gone, Germany has to do more, which is a huge responsibility, knowing the history of Germany. Germany is not without its problems, but they do not have a choice. Today’s Germany is not the Germany, which it used to be, in a good sense.
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.