The nor’easter or bomb cyclone pegged to plaster coastal areas from Virginia Beach to Boston with heavy snow will probably just graze the Washington region with a light accumulation. But enough snow may fall Friday night, amid dropping temperatures, for slick roads.
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Computer models vary in their forecasts, but generally a coating to 2 inches is most probable in the immediate D.C. area; up to a few inches are possible nearer the Chesapeake Bay. Over the Delmarva Peninsula, where winter storm watches are in effect, 3 to 6 inches or so could fall, depending on the storm track.
The flakes will fall on the centennial of the infamous Knickerbocker snowstorm, the biggest snowstorm on record for the District. Friday’s snow event will not be in the same league.
How the Knickerbocker snowstorm became D.C.’s deadliest disaster 100 years ago
Some patchy light snow could develop in the Washington region as early as Friday morning, ahead of a cold front that will ultimately join up with the storm developing off the coast of the Carolinas. Snow during the day on Friday may not amount to much with temperatures near and above freezing, with most accumulation, if any, on grassy areas.
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The snow may briefly pick up in intensity Friday night, especially in our eastern areas, as temperatures fall below freezing. The Friday evening commute could be slow and slick in some areas.
Because the coastal storm is taking an offshore track, dry air will gradually cut off the snow from west to east during the predawn hours Saturday. By sunrise, the snow should be over in most places east of the bay, but it may persist over the Delmarva until early Saturday afternoon.
Nor’easter, ‘bomb cyclone’ to deliver heavy snow, wind to East Coast
Snow amounts
In the immediate D.C. area, models generally project between 1 and 2 inches. However, some of that snow could fall when temperatures are above freezing during the day Friday, when it would melt.
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Here’s how much different models simulate for the District:
High-resolution Canadian: 2 to 3 inches European: 2 inches Canadian: 2 inches NAM: 2 inches American (GFS): 1 to 2 inches High-resolution: NAM: 1-inch ICON: 1-inch UKMet: 0.4 inches
Amounts quickly increase closer to the bay, and snowfall may vary significantly over rather short distances. The chance of a snow “boom” goes up east and southeast of central Prince George’s County, but even there, models disagree on how much will accumulate. If the storm track shifts east, the area won’t see much.
Our forecast map at the top of this article takes a blend of the model forecasts and accounts for potential melting during the day Friday, along with the fact that the snow may turn a bit fluffier at night and accumulate more quickly, assuming the storm doesn’t track too far east.
The National Weather Service snowfall forecast (shown above) is a bit more aggressive than ours and seems to be siding with the snowier models that track the storm a bit closer to the coast.
Storm timeline and temperatures
Temperature ranges shown below will generally be lowest northwest of the District and highest to the southeast.
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7 a.m. to noon Friday: Patchy light snow or flurries, especially west of the District. Dusting/coating possible. Temperatures near freezing, rising to mid-30s.
Noon to 5 p.m.: Patchy light snow. Little or no snow accumulation. Temperatures: 33 to 37.
5 to 10 p.m.: Areas of light snow. Coating to an inch or so possible. Temperatures: falling from the mid-30s to near 30.
10 p.m. to 3 a.m. Saturday: Areas of snow, steadiest east of Interstate 95. Some additional accumulation possible, especially in eastern areas. Temperatures: falling to 22 to 27.
3 a.m. to 8 a.m.: Snow mostly tapers off from west to east. Temperatures: falling to near 20.
8 a.m. to 1 p.m.: Flurries, snow showers may linger in eastern areas. Windy and cold. Temperatures: 20 to 25.
Storm impact
On Capital Weather Gang’s winter storm impact scale, this storm rates near the intersection of a Category 1 “nuisance” and Category 2 “disruptive” event for the immediate area, mainly because of the potential for slick roads for the Friday evening commute into the nighttime hours. While some snow will fall during the day Friday, it probably won’t have major effects on school and government operations given the limited accumulation potential then.
Cold, windy conditions in the storm’s wake mean any snow that falls Friday night and that is not cleared could make for slick conditions even into Saturday. High temperatures Saturday are only forecast to reach the mid-20s, with winds gusting to 40 mph.
Closer to the bay, this will rate more as Category 2 given a heavier, longer-duration snowfall.
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Toward the Delmarva, it may rate as a Category 3 “significant” storm with impacts continuing through much of the day Saturday, when travel could be difficult, with wind-driven snow lasting into the afternoon. Right along the coast, a period of blizzard conditions cannot even be ruled out Saturday morning, with extremely hazardous travel conditions, possibly entering Category 4 territory.
Wes Junker contributed to this report.