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Like with all major explosions, you have to wait for the smoke to clear and the dust to settle before the full extent of the damage becomes evident. Three days after Donald Trump detonated his global tariffs big bang we’re beginning to get a better understanding of the fallout.
The US President’s “Liberation Day” blitzkrieg understandably sent shockwaves around the world, with governments, financial markets, businesses and consumers left reeling. Britain was hit hard, but not as hard as others. A 10% tariff on all exports to the United States - half that imposed on the EU - was less than feared and represents a key benefit of Brexit.
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The new levy, which came into force at 5am today, is considerably lower than the 34% levied on China.
But targeted 25% tariffs on cars and steel, which came into effect in the early hours of Thursday, will impact these British industries more severely.
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Trump claims Sir Keir Starmer was “very happy” with the way Britain was treated but the mood coming out of Downing Street is more of tempered relief.
However, Tories pointed out that Trump also imposed tariffs of 10% on nations including the Congo, Costa Rica, and Kosovo, suggesting Britain’s diplomatic efforts, including the offer of a state visit hosted by the King, had made little difference.
The Prime Minister has promised a “cool and calm” response but has indicated Britain could strike back at the Trump empire.
The UK car industry could suffer the most from the Republican strongman’s protectionist agenda.
British carmakers have already been squeezed by falling sales in China, stagnant demand in EU countries and difficulties convincing motorists to switch to electric vehicles.
Professor David Bailey, of Birmingham University’s Department of Management, has warned the new tariff will make UK exports to the US more expensive, reducing demand.
“It’s going to hit sales and therefore production in the UK. It means lower profits and therefore job losses,” he warned.
The British car industry employs 813,000 people including 198,000 directly involved in manufacturing.
Vehicles are the biggest UK export to the US, with sales of ￡8.3 billion to American buyers each year.
Luxury brands have been particularly successful and senior managers from Bentley, based in Cheshire, and Jaguar Land Rover, with plants in the West Midlands and Merseyside, among the executives attending a Number 10 meeting with the Prime Minister on Thursday morning - just hours after Trump’s White House announcement.
Aston Martin, Rolls Royce and Mini are other brands likely to be clobbered by the levies.
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Cars, including Land Rovers, in Southampton (Image: Getty Images)
The UK currently imposes a 10% tariff of its own on imports of US vehicles, and Prof Bailey said it may be possible to do a deal with the White House in which both countries cut charges,
The US is the second-largest export market for British-made cars after the European Union, with more than 101,000 units shipped in 2024.
If jobs are lost then the region hardest-hit would probably be the West Midlands, which contains key “red wall” Parliamentary constituencies that switched from Conservative to Labour in last year’s general election.
The 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports to the US has been in place since the middle of March.
In such a short time it’s hard to measure the long-term impact of the decision on the UK.
However, economists say it could affect UK products worth hundreds of millions of pounds as things like cars, cans and tin foil are likely to become more expensive.
The UK’s steel industry is already struggling as excess capacity in the global market has pushed prices down.
This large-scale production is largely coming from China, which is what is partly motivating Trump to place even higher tariffs on the country’s steel at a colossal 45 %.
Industry figures in the UK have publicly disagreed with Labour’s decision to not retaliate.
Gareth Stace, the director-general of trade association UK Steel, branded the Trump administration’s move “hugely disappointing”, and urged the government to take “decisive action” to protect the industry.
The US is the steel industry’s second largest export market behind the European Union.
There is little doubt Trump's tariffs sledgehammer has led to immediate moves in share prices - the US, British and Asian stockmarkets have all fallen in the past 72 hours - and are also likely to have a longer-term economic impact.
Experts say that investors have always had to ride economic shocks but savers and pension holders have been warned of the risks of making “knee-jerk” decisions.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said that during times of market volatility, it is important that “eyes are kept on long-term investment horizons”.
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Some pension savers may also be experiencing fluctuations in their funds.
Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, urged caution.
“Pensions are a long-term game and over the years, periods of market upheaval are to be expected.
“Making knee-jerk reactions such as changing investment strategy or cutting back on contributions can crystallise losses and make it harder for your fund to recover and this can impact your retirement income.
“It’s important to make sure that your strategy is well diversified to protect your pension from these ups and downs.”
Ms Morrissey said some people nearing retirement may choose to put off drawing money from their pension pot until the situation becomes “more settled”.
She added that some people coming up to retirement may opt to buy a retirement annuity, which gives a guaranteed income.
As for mortgages, experts said there could be a risk that higher inflation means the Bank of England keeps interest rates higher for longer.
But the Bank could be under pressure to make more cuts, to support economic growth.
So why did Britain fare, relatively, better than most countries and was notably less harshly treated than the EU.
The simple answer is Brexit.
Had Britain still been inside the bloc we would have had 20% tariffs slapped on us, the equivalent to a ￡30 billion hit to the economy.
Not only will our 10% tariff limit the pain felt by British businesses compared to their European neighbours, but it could present trading opportunities.
UK exporters to America could have a competitive edge, with US importers only facing half the tax by dealing with UK businesses instead of EU businesses.
British firms - and consumers - could also benefit from cheaper goods finding their way here instead of America if the extra costs prove insurmountable.
But, there are concerns about the impact that could have on homegrown industries if cheap products, possibly with lower standards, flood the UK market.
So what happens next and how will the UK react?
Sir Keir has signalled he is ready to impose retaliatory tariffs, something Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has warned against, on the United States as soon as next month unless he can secure a trade deal with President Trump.
The Prime Minister said he was still focused on getting an agreement that could spare British firms the worst impacts of the US tariff blitz.
But, in a toughening of the UK's stance, he set a May 1 deadline for a consultation on launching a tit-for-tat response - and published a 417-page dossier of US goods that could be hit.
Trump's tariffs threaten to derail Labour's economic plans, and increase the risk that Rachel Reeves will have to raise taxes or cut spending at the autumn Budget to meet her fiscal rules.
The Office for Budget Responsibility warned this week that the Chancellor's fiscal headroom would be “knocked out” in the event of a trade war.
Downing Street has declined to set out the likely impact of Mr Trump's tariff package on UK exports.
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But economists have suggested they could affect around 70% of the UK's ￡60billion annual exports to the US.
The European Commission has said it expected tariffs to impact 70% of its own US exports, worth ￡320billion.