John Curtice on by-election results
Sir Keir Starmer has a "question mark" as to why Labour did not swipe Boris Johnson's former seat, according to a top pollster.
Professor Sir John Curtice said it was widely accepted that fury over London Mayor Sadiq Khan's expansion of the ultra low emission zone (ULEZ) was to blame for the failure to take Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
But the polling guru said Labour must ask itself why its hold on the electorate is "apparently so weak" that when a controversial local issue comes up they "don't perform as they should".
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "For Sir Keir Starmer there just is that question mark as to why Labour didn't win in Uxbridge."
Pointing to ULEZ, he went on: "But Labour still have to ask themselves why is our hold on the electorate apparently so weak that when an issue like that comes along, where the Conservatives end up attacking us, that we don't perform as we should. So there's a question there for Labour."
Prof Curtice said there are questions for Sir Keir Starmer and Labour (Image: BBC)
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Meanwhile, Prof Curtice warned the Lib Dems could struggle to replicate their success in Somerton and Frome in Somerset, where they overturned a 20,000 Tory majority, in a general election.
He said: "Sir Ed Davey clearly delighted winning Somerton and Frome and we've got further evidence that the Liberal Democrats can do well in by-elections they can target.
"But the challenge they will face as the general election comes into view is how do you replicate success in an individual constituency in say the 30 or so constituencies the Liberal Democrats talk about wanting to win. It's much more difficult to do that kind of target in a general election."
The polling guru also said the Tories were in "deep electoral trouble" despite their Uxbridge coup.
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As well as losing Somerton and Frome, Rishi Sunak's party saw safe seat Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire go to Labour.
Prof Curtice said the three by-election results as a whole show the Conservatives are 21 percentage points behind, which is comparable to the national polling.
He said: "Taken in the round, these by-election results do suggest that the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble, as the opinion polls have been telling us."
The polling guru said the Tories "should not take too much comfort" from their win in the former PM's constituency.
He highlighted how the new Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell admitted his win was due to a backlash over ULEZ, without mentioning the PM's five pledges which include stopping small boats and halving inflation.
He said: "Certainly if you accept the interpretation of the Conservative victory which Mr Tuckwell basically said this was entirely to do with the ULEZ issue and did not mention at all that this was evidence that Mr Sunak's five tests and pursuing the people's priorities that it was evidence of voters being won over by this.
"Perhaps he didn't get the script from Conservative central office.
"But even if you include what happened in that by-election, and you take the three by-elections together, the average drop in Conservative support is 21 points, currently the decline in Conservative support in the polls is 18 points.
"In other words, taken as a piece these three by-elections are consistent with the depressing message of the opinion polls that the Conservatives are behind."
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