The Russian-Chinese relations under the new Chinese leadership will continue to develop in a good way – by default. The ‘fourth generation’ (Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, etc.), together with the Russian president (Vladimir Putin) set up such a good framework for bilateral relations in the early 2000s, that it will continue to function, despite personal changes in the leadership.

       The recent National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) did not produce any sensations, against the background of expectations and speculations, generated by experts and mass media. However, the lack of surprise is probably a significant result of the Congress in itself. One may reasonably conclude now that China will continue to follow the path of reform and development, opened originally by Deng Xiaoping in late 1978, and then developed by his successors, including Hu Jintao, into the ‘scientific outlook on development’.

       The latter’s report to the XVIIIth Congress gives an impression of a balanced document, marked by clear vision of China’s future and realistic approach to how to achieve it. The key goal of ‘completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects’ by 2020 is ambitious; it means not only to keep the second biggest economy in the world on track, but to double the country’s GDP, compared to the 2010 level, while significantly raising living standards of the vast population of China (every six inhabitant of our planet is Chinese now).

       The task is not easy to achieve, keeping in mind that equal access to basic public services, including medicine and social security, for all people of China is still to be achieved. But the Chinese leadership is definitely views the population not as a burden, but as an asset, and will continue to invest in the human capital, - which will give the country additional advantage in the competitive global economy.

       The sustainable development of the Chinese economy, especially on expectations of a new wave of the global crisis, would definitely require changes in the Chinese growth model. The new, 5th generation of Chinese leaders, headed by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, will have to do it, while maintaining the social stability and keeping the overall political and administrative control. Both top leaders have reputation of reform-oriented, and my impression is that many people in China pin their hopes on them.

       Personal factor would not be a decisive one here (as one could expect after the public story with Bo Xilai). Although the Chinese political system is definitely not a Western-style liberal democracy, it is still based on a collective leadership, and thus seeks stability and consensus. Whoever people at the top are, they will have to pursue a policy derived from objective and well-calculated needs and requirements, - in style with traditional Chinese political culture, which always seeks balance, harmony and strategic planning.

       The remarkable growth of China’s economy and the overall power in the recent years spawned temptation of a ‘super-power behavior’ in the Chinese elite. It is noteworthy that the Report to the CPC Congress, especially after the aggravation of the situation around the territorial disputes between China and Japan in the South China Sea, did not provoke this temptation further. The Report says ‘China is committed to peaceful settlement of international disputes and hotspot issues, opposes the use of force or threat to use it’, etc.

       Although relations with Russia (as with other countries) are not mentioned in the Report to the Congress, I assume that the Russian-Chinese relations under the new Chinese leadership will continue to develop in a good way – by default. The ‘fourth generation’ (Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, etc.), together with the Russian president (Vladimir Putin) set up such a good framework for bilateral relations in the early 2000s, that it will continue to function, despite personal changes in the leadership. I hope relations between the two countries will continue to be stable, equal, friendly, and of strategic partnership nature, - although not necessarily symmetrical in all spheres.

       As for the Communist Party of China itself, I think that it will continue to develop and reform itself in a specific and incremental way. It looks like the CPC will become less ideology driven, and more adaptive to changing realities and practice oriented. The Party will have to streamline its own party discipline and control, to face the challenges of corruption in economy and the administrative system, and to further develop democratic mechanisms in the country’s political system, especially with regards community-level democracy, which is critically important to respond to people’s needs and to secure the party’s leading role in the society.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.