All eyes on Q2 GDP

       THIS holiday-shortened week will be a packed one for economic data releases.

       The second quarter (Q2) of 2021 gross domestic product (GDP) numbers are due on Friday.

       There will also be a slew of data to be released this week, including the industrial production index (IPI), manufacturing sales, unemployment rate and construction statistics.

       AmBank Group Research expects GDP for Q2 of 2021 to hover around 11%-13%. The research house has reiterated the full-year GDP at 4%-4.5%.

       TA Securities foresees a decent growth of 6.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q2 of 2021 despite the lockdown.

       Apart from the low base effect, growth would be supported by positive momentum in the manufacturing and mining sectors, it said.

       TA Securities is maintaining its 2021 GDP growth estimate at 4.7%. The country’s economy recorded a contraction of 0.5% in Q1 of 2021.

       ING expects growth to contract by 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, although this will still deliver an 11% y-o-y expansion due to low base effects.

       The research house’s full-year 2021 forecast is 4.4% after the recent downgrade from 5.3%.

       ING believes the macro policy has almost hit a wall, and GDP figures are unlikely to have any meaningful impact on future policy direction.

       According to a median forecast in a Bloomberg survey, the IPI is expected to contract by 1.5%.

       Meanwhile, Bursa Malaysia and its subsidiaries will be closed tomorrow in conjunction with Awal Muharram.

       Singapore GDP

       SINGAPORE is expected to release the final print of its GDP for Q2 of 2021 on Wednesday.

       Based on advance estimates, the republic’s economy grew by 14.3% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in the second quarter of 2021, extending the 1.3% growth in the previous quarter.

       Singapore's iconic Merlion with the financial district in the background. - File pic

       On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the Singapore economy contracted by 2% in Q2 of 2021, a reversal from the 3.1% growth in the preceding quarter.

       China PPI, CPI

       A slew of data is due from China including producer price index (PPI), consumer price index (CPI), M2 money supply and new yuan loans.

       According to Bloomberg estimates, China’s July PPI is expected to expand 8.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 8.8% in June while CPI to grow 0.8% y-o-y in July from 1.1% in June.

       BSP meeting

       THE Philippine Central Bank (BSP) is widely expected to keep its overnight borrowing rate and standing overnight deposit facility rate unchanged at 2% and 1.5%, respectively.

       UOB expects BSP to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance for the rest of the year.

       ING said the Philippine central bank would likely keep rates at 2% to help support the economic recovery.

       However, the research house notes that a possible reduction in the reserve requirement was now likely to help shore up liquidity support.

       The Philippines is due to announce tomorrow its GDP for Q2 of 2021.