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Humiliation for SNP as Nigel Farage's Reform UK now level in shock new by-election poll

2025-05-30 00:00:00.0 每日快报-政治原网页

Reform has caught up with the SNP in the polls (Image: Getty)

A new by-election poll has put Reform UK level with the SNP, as party insiders say they are brimming with confidence ahead of next week's Holyrood by-election. The latest poll from More In Common puts Nigel Farage's party way out in front in Westminster voting intentions across the UK, with 31% of voters saying they would back Reform. Labour are on 22% just ahead of the Tories (19%), Lib Dems (14%) and Greens (8%).

But it is the Scottish sub-section that will send a shiver down the spines of the established Holyrood parties. In the weighted sample of Scottish voters who are likely to vote, Reform and the SNP both won the backing of 24% of the electorate. This will likely panic John Swinney's party ahed of next week's Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election - which is taking place after the death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie.

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In the Scotland poll, Labour and the Scots Tories were tied on 16% with the Lib Dems on 10% and the Greens on 4%. If these results were repeated at a General Election, according to the Electoral Calculus seat predictor, the Nats would have 18 MPs ahead of Reform on 13, Labour on 11, the Tories on nine and the Lib Dems on six in Scotland.

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The SNP and Reform both have a quarter of the vote (Image: Getty)

Although the SNP would be the largest party, it would hardly be a convincing 'win' and the pro-UK parties would have a comfortable majority of Scottish MPs (39 to 18).

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In a further sign of progress for Reform, the More In Common pollsters also asked those who aren't likely to vote who they would vote for if they were "forced to choose". Of these reluctant voters, 37% said they would vote for Reform if they had to vote for someone.

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She denied the campaign was "in chaos" and told Sky News: "You didn't see me do a runner, there was no running... I'm out on the streets and knocking on doors."

A Reform insider told the Express "it's definitely feeling good here" and added: "Reform started this campaign thinking a strong third place was achievable, but now the enthusiasm and momentum on the street is feeling really, really positive.

“Labour have had a calamity of a campaign full of gaffes and disasters, that's why it's now a straight fight between Reform and the SNP."

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关键词： Comments Farage Reform by-election Starmer Sponsored Nigel