Pakistan perceives Israel’s Iran gamble as far from a bilateral matter, given its tendency to draw in external actors with far-reaching regional implications. In an era of rapidly shifting global alliances and the transition toward a multipolar order, Pakistan cannot afford detachment, Almas Haider Naqvi writes.

       Israel’s Iran gamble, driven by Netanyahu’s overconfidence, miscalculations, and a fundamental misunderstanding of Iran’s political landscape, socio-cultural dynamics, military capabilities, and retaliatory resolve, has inflicted serious damage on its own power projection, supposedly invincible defense systems, and self-proclaimed image as a regional hegemon. Despite inflicting tactical setbacks on the Iranian regime, Israel failed to achieve the declared objectives of Operation Rising Lion – crippling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure to prevent it from acquiring nuclear capabilities, militarily weakening Iran to cement its regional dominance, and replacing Iran’s theocratic regime with a pro-Israeli liberal government. The US intervention in this conflict effectively served as a “rescue operation”, aimed at averting further Israeli losses and preventing the conflict from escalating.

       For Pakistan, the Israel-Iran war was not merely a distant confrontation; it carried strategic, moral, and diplomatic imperatives that demanded clear positioning. Islamabad views the potential collapse of Tehran or heightened instability within Iran as bearing grave strategic consequences, given Pakistan’s 900-kilometer shared border with Iran. A pro-Israeli government in Iran would be strategically detrimental, as it could expose Pakistan’s western flank to the Israel-India nexus and further destabilize the already volatile Balochistan – a province critical for regional connectivity, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its potential trade linkages to Russia via Iran, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia.

       Pakistan perceives Israel’s Iran gamble as far from a bilateral matter, given its tendency to draw in external actors with far-reaching regional implications. In an era of rapidly shifting global alliances and the transition toward a multipolar order, Pakistan cannot afford detachment. These developments will inevitably reshape regional geopolitics, even as Pakistan – while adhering to non-bloc politics – seeks to hedge relations with all major powers, deepen its strategic ties with China, foster a new phase of improved relations with Russia in Eurasia, and maintain counterterrorism and commercial engagement with the United States.

       The direct exchange of firepower between the two adversaries shattered the long-standing rules of covert engagement that had characterized Iran-Israel hostilities. The cycle of proxy clashes escalated into overt warfare – airstrikes, missile exchanges, and targeted assassinations – alarming global capitals, including Islamabad. Pakistan threw its weight behind Tehran, offering unambiguous political and diplomatic support, condemning Israeli and US aggression, and reaffirming its strategic autonomy and clarity of stance.

       While Islamabad maintains balanced relations with the region’s three major players – Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey – it faces a strategic dilemma amid the Middle East’s contrasting geopolitical alignments. On one hand, much of the Arab world gravitates toward Israel through the Abraham Accords; on the other, the Iran-led resistance axis presents a distinct framework for Pakistan’s regional foreign policy. Pakistan perceives the India-Israel nexus as a direct security threat, making opposition to Israeli influence in the region a strategic imperative. On moral grounds, Islamabad condemns Israel’s occupation and atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank, advocating instead for a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders with Jerusalem as the shared capital.

       Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, articulated the country’s policy on recent developments: “Pakistan has consistently upheld Iran’s legitimate right to self-defense under the UN Charter, while endorsing Tehran’s constructive and pragmatic approach to resolving the nuclear issue through negotiation. The US-Israeli actions have dangerously eroded longstanding norms of interstate conduct, risking a regional conflagration with potentially catastrophic consequences. Pakistan welcomes the announced ceasefire between Iran and Israel and reiterates that all parties must engage constructively to resolve outstanding disputes through dialogue and diplomacy.”

       Expanding on the broader context, Dar elaborated: “At a deeper level, our world is passing through another pivotal moment in history. A profound transformation is underway in the global order, marked by changes unseen in a century. The unipolar era has ended; the world is unmistakably moving toward multipolarity… Amid this global turbulence, Pakistan is navigating a forward-looking path as a confident and sovereign nation, steadfast in safeguarding its territorial integrity while fulfilling its responsibilities as a member of the international community. As both a middle power and a key voice of the Global South, Pakistan is committed to advancing peace, security, and sustainable development. Our strategic and constructive global engagement remains pivotal in securing a stable and prosperous future for Pakistan.”

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.