If the United States had acted a couple of decades ago to bomb Iran’s nuclear weapons program, as it did on Saturday, oil prices would have soared. But even though prices might jump when trading resumes this week, the longer-term effect is far less clear.

       Oil traders must weigh whether the American attack will lead to wider fighting that harms exports from the Persian Gulf, said Muyu Xu, senior Asia crude oil analyst at Kpler, a global commodities and shipping data firm.

       Wider fighting could drive up prices if oil facilities are damaged or tanker traffic is interrupted. There have been no major disruptions so far since the Israel-Iran conflict escalated this month, though Israel’s air attacks did set fire to a refinery and a refined products depot supplying Tehran.

       “Until now, we haven’t seen a single barrel removed from the market,” Ms. Xu said.

       Military action by Iran to interrupt the flow of oil would mostly harm China, which is closely aligned with Iran and buys nearly all of Iran’s oil exports.

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       “Iran is unlikely to escalate against energy targets while its own energy export facilities remain intact,” analysts at the Eurasia Group, a research firm, wrote in a note. “However, increased Iranian harassment of tanker traffic is likely in coming days.”

       Oil prices have risen about 10 percent since the recent eruption of hostilities, which began with a surprise attack on Iran by Israel on June 13. Prices fell on Friday after President Trump said he would decide within two weeks whether to enter the war against Iran.

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