Reform UK is set to snatch a stronghold from Labour at the next general election, one poll shows (Image: Getty)
Reform UK looks set to win a Labour stronghold in London at the next general election in what would be a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer, polling shows.
Modelling generated by Nowcast shows Nigel Farage's Reform UK beating Labour in Dagenham and Rainham, where Sir Keir's party has been elected for years.
DON'T MISS
Powered by
Nigel Farage hails huge new poll boost for Reform UK: 'The trend is clear!'
208 Comments
Clarity of vision will restore faith in a Tory future
35 Comments
Nigel Farage as PM 'possible' with rulebook being turned on its head, says pollster
64 Comments
Billionaire Tony donor joins Nigel Farage's Reform UK in huge blow for Kemi Badenach
500 Comments
Nigel Farage issues fresh 11-word warning to Tories after yet another defection
257 Comments
Farage makes shock prediction about fate of Tory party and it's not good news for Kemi
275 Comments
Suella Braverman's husband 'to defect to Reform' with Tory big beast 'expected to follow'
842 Comments
Nigel Farage's Reform surges to new high in bombshell poll
400 Comments
Reform UK handed massive win as two-thirds of punters bet on them to win most seats
54 Comments
Why Reform UK is ready to lead Britain and lessons Tories are failing to learn
117 Comments
Huge boost to Nigel Farage's PM hopes as major milestone reached
230 Comments
Shocking new map shows 100 seats Labour will lose in next General Election - full list
632 Comments
Nigel Farage's six-word warning over Labour housing target as 'lives will be impacted'
103 Comments
Shock poll shows Labour heartland fall to Reform in blow to Starmer - full list of seats
315 Comments
Nigel Farage declares 'sky is the limit' for Reform UK in bombshell new video
181 Comments
Lee Anderson's stern nine-word warning to the Left as Nigel Farage secures his biggest win
56 Comments
Nigel Farage's Reform UK scoffs at suggestion of pact with ‘broken' Tories
55 Comments
Reform ‘a big threat' warns Suella Braverman as she blasts Tory MP ‘complacency'
44 Comments
Kemi Badenoch needs to keep in mind one thing about Keir Starmer and Labour Party
83 Comments
Andrew Neil backs Nigel Farage as he tips Reform to crush Labour at next election
315 Comments
Nigel Farage hails huge new poll boost for Reform UK: 'The trend is clear!'
208 Comments
Clarity of vision will restore faith in a Tory future
35 Comments
Nigel Farage as PM 'possible' with rulebook being turned on its head, says pollster
64 Comments
Billionaire Tony donor joins Nigel Farage's Reform UK in huge blow for Kemi Badenach
500 Comments
Nigel Farage issues fresh 11-word warning to Tories after yet another defection
257 Comments
Farage makes shock prediction about fate of Tory party and it's not good news for Kemi
275 Comments
Suella Braverman's husband 'to defect to Reform' with Tory big beast 'expected to follow'
842 Comments
Nigel Farage's Reform surges to new high in bombshell poll
400 Comments
Reform UK handed massive win as two-thirds of punters bet on them to win most seats
54 Comments
Why Reform UK is ready to lead Britain and lessons Tories are failing to learn
117 Comments
Huge boost to Nigel Farage's PM hopes as major milestone reached
230 Comments
Shocking new map shows 100 seats Labour will lose in next General Election - full list
632 Comments
Nigel Farage's six-word warning over Labour housing target as 'lives will be impacted'
103 Comments
Shock poll shows Labour heartland fall to Reform in blow to Starmer - full list of seats
315 Comments
Nigel Farage declares 'sky is the limit' for Reform UK in bombshell new video
181 Comments
Lee Anderson's stern nine-word warning to the Left as Nigel Farage secures his biggest win
56 Comments
Nigel Farage's Reform UK scoffs at suggestion of pact with ‘broken' Tories
55 Comments
Reform ‘a big threat' warns Suella Braverman as she blasts Tory MP ‘complacency'
44 Comments
Kemi Badenoch needs to keep in mind one thing about Keir Starmer and Labour Party
83 Comments
Andrew Neil backs Nigel Farage as he tips Reform to crush Labour at next election
315 Comments
Nigel Farage hails huge new poll boost for Reform UK: 'The trend is clear!'
208 Comments
Clarity of vision will restore faith in a Tory future
35 Comments
Nigel Farage as PM 'possible' with rulebook being turned on its head, says pollster
64 Comments
Billionaire Tony donor joins Nigel Farage's Reform UK in huge blow for Kemi Badenach
500 Comments
Nigel Farage issues fresh 11-word warning to Tories after yet another defection
257 Comments
Farage makes shock prediction about fate of Tory party and it's not good news for Kemi
275 Comments
Suella Braverman's husband 'to defect to Reform' with Tory big beast 'expected to follow'
842 Comments
The model puts Reform on a 3.1% majority with 34.4% of the vote compared to 31.3% for Labour and the Conservatives trailing on 18.1%.
Nowcast's results also show the neighbouring constituency, Hornchurch and Upminster, tilting towards Reform UK, with a 1.8% majority and 36.2% of the vote.
Mr Farage's populist party is aiming to upset British politics, with Ladbrokes this week putting him at 5/2 favourite to succeed Sir Keir at No.10, ahead of Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch.
READ MORE Rachel Reeves warned tractor protesters are poised to target her constituency
Get the latest politics news straight to your phone Join us on WhatsApp Our community members are treated to special offers, promotions, and adverts from us and our partners. You can check out at any time. Read our Privacy Policy
Reform UK has recently seen some top Tory defections, with Conservative Home founder Tim Montgomerie and billionaire property tycoon, Nick Candy, switching support.
Aggregate polling shows Reform UK would narrowly beat the Conservatives into second place on 34.5% of the vote and oust the incumbent MP for Hornchurch and Upminster, Julia Lopez.
Nick Palmer was Reform UK's candidate at the general election in July when he gained 13,317 votes compared to Ms Lopez's 15,260. He told Express.co.uk: "The Tories have lost touch with the backbone of Britain. They’ve wasted the past 14 years moving more and more to the left, picking policies that are more suited to be Liberal Democrat.
"The hard working people of Hornchurch and Upminster are fed up with not being listened to and not getting a fair deal."
Ms Lopez told Express.co.uk: "The brilliant voters of Hornchurch and Upminster endorsed me to continue as their MP, and I'm grateful - we got a lot done together, including a big new NHS hub that's now open, and my team and I continue to fight for the things residents care about."
She added that not every part of the country did the same and votes for Reform UK led to a huge Labour majority which is now hurting people and businesses in places such as Havering. The MP continued: "The Conservative Party is under new management, and we are drawing up a robust plan to put to voters at the next general election based on the values and issues that people care about - from immigration to high quality services and a strong economy."
Ms Lopez saw her share of the vote crash from 65.8% at the 2019 general election, to 32.5% in 2024, with figures suggesting Reform UK took a sizeable chunk of the vote from the Tories.
Labour held on to Dagenham and Rainham in July, with 42.6% of the vote compared with Reform UK which secured 24.2% and beat the Tories into third place on 17.8%.
Don't miss...
Map shows full list of UK towns about to be bulldozed by Angela Rayner [REVEALED]
Labour civil war erupts as Ed Miliband blasted by Wes Streeting over Syria [REPORT]
SNP scandal erupts as 'Sturgeon's stormtroopers' cause chaos in party civil war [LATEST]
Labour has triumphed in Dagenham for decades (Image: Getty)
Trending
SUBSCRIBE Invalid email
We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you've consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our Privacy Policy
Well known as the home of Ford's Dagenham car plant, the town was also a location for French pharma giant, Sanofi-Aventis, and battery maker Ever Ready. Much of the Becontree Estate, once Europe's largest public housing project, lies in Dagenham.
While Dagenham and Rainham has been held by Labour since the seat was formed in 2010, Sir Keir's party saw its lowest ever majority in Dagenham in 2019 when Conservative candidate Damian White was narrowly beaten by Jon Cruddas during an election led by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and dominated by Brexit.
Dagenham forms part of the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham, which voted 62.4% in favour of Brexit in 2016. Upminster and Hornchurch fall under the London Borough of Havering where 69.7% voted for Britain to exit the European Union.
Reform UK insiders are said to be quietly rejoicing at the Nowcast forecast, with one telling GB News it presents a "huge" opportunity to realign the centre-right in British politics.
DON'T MISS
Powered by
Nigel Farage hails huge new poll boost for Reform UK: 'The trend is clear!'
208 Comments
Clarity of vision will restore faith in a Tory future
35 Comments
Nigel Farage as PM 'possible' with rulebook being turned on its head, says pollster
64 Comments
Billionaire Tony donor joins Nigel Farage's Reform UK in huge blow for Kemi Badenach
500 Comments
Nigel Farage issues fresh 11-word warning to Tories after yet another defection
257 Comments
Farage makes shock prediction about fate of Tory party and it's not good news for Kemi
275 Comments
Suella Braverman's husband 'to defect to Reform' with Tory big beast 'expected to follow'
842 Comments
Nigel Farage's Reform surges to new high in bombshell poll
400 Comments
Reform UK handed massive win as two-thirds of punters bet on them to win most seats
54 Comments
Why Reform UK is ready to lead Britain and lessons Tories are failing to learn
117 Comments
Huge boost to Nigel Farage's PM hopes as major milestone reached
230 Comments
Shocking new map shows 100 seats Labour will lose in next General Election - full list
632 Comments
Nigel Farage's six-word warning over Labour housing target as 'lives will be impacted'
103 Comments
Shock poll shows Labour heartland fall to Reform in blow to Starmer - full list of seats
315 Comments
Nigel Farage declares 'sky is the limit' for Reform UK in bombshell new video
181 Comments
Lee Anderson's stern nine-word warning to the Left as Nigel Farage secures his biggest win
56 Comments
Nigel Farage's Reform UK scoffs at suggestion of pact with ‘broken' Tories
55 Comments
Reform ‘a big threat' warns Suella Braverman as she blasts Tory MP ‘complacency'
44 Comments
Kemi Badenoch needs to keep in mind one thing about Keir Starmer and Labour Party
83 Comments
Andrew Neil backs Nigel Farage as he tips Reform to crush Labour at next election
315 Comments
Nigel Farage hails huge new poll boost for Reform UK: 'The trend is clear!'
208 Comments
Clarity of vision will restore faith in a Tory future
35 Comments
Nigel Farage as PM 'possible' with rulebook being turned on its head, says pollster
64 Comments
Billionaire Tony donor joins Nigel Farage's Reform UK in huge blow for Kemi Badenach
500 Comments
Nigel Farage issues fresh 11-word warning to Tories after yet another defection
257 Comments
Farage makes shock prediction about fate of Tory party and it's not good news for Kemi
275 Comments
Suella Braverman's husband 'to defect to Reform' with Tory big beast 'expected to follow'
842 Comments
Nigel Farage's Reform surges to new high in bombshell poll
400 Comments
Reform UK handed massive win as two-thirds of punters bet on them to win most seats
54 Comments
Why Reform UK is ready to lead Britain and lessons Tories are failing to learn
117 Comments
Huge boost to Nigel Farage's PM hopes as major milestone reached
230 Comments
Shocking new map shows 100 seats Labour will lose in next General Election - full list
632 Comments
Nigel Farage's six-word warning over Labour housing target as 'lives will be impacted'
103 Comments
Shock poll shows Labour heartland fall to Reform in blow to Starmer - full list of seats
315 Comments
Nigel Farage declares 'sky is the limit' for Reform UK in bombshell new video
181 Comments
Lee Anderson's stern nine-word warning to the Left as Nigel Farage secures his biggest win
56 Comments
Nigel Farage's Reform UK scoffs at suggestion of pact with ‘broken' Tories
55 Comments
Reform ‘a big threat' warns Suella Braverman as she blasts Tory MP ‘complacency'
44 Comments
Kemi Badenoch needs to keep in mind one thing about Keir Starmer and Labour Party
83 Comments
Andrew Neil backs Nigel Farage as he tips Reform to crush Labour at next election
315 Comments
Nigel Farage hails huge new poll boost for Reform UK: 'The trend is clear!'
208 Comments
Clarity of vision will restore faith in a Tory future
35 Comments
Nigel Farage as PM 'possible' with rulebook being turned on its head, says pollster
64 Comments
Billionaire Tony donor joins Nigel Farage's Reform UK in huge blow for Kemi Badenach
500 Comments
Nigel Farage issues fresh 11-word warning to Tories after yet another defection
257 Comments
Farage makes shock prediction about fate of Tory party and it's not good news for Kemi
275 Comments
Suella Braverman's husband 'to defect to Reform' with Tory big beast 'expected to follow'
842 Comments
The same forecast shows Reform gaining a number of other seats, including Folkestone and Hythe, Chatham and Aylesford, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, South West Norfolk and Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North.
In all, the insurgent group looks set to win some 30 seats, including the five it claimed in July.
National polling puts Labour and the Tories at about 26% each with Reform at around 14% come the next election. Were Mr Farage to become the next prime minister, analysts say it would likely be a result of a hung parliament.