OPINION
Reform UK Party Leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
The first opinion polls for April look great for Reform UK as the party looks set to win the Runcorn by-election in May. Find Out Now put Reform a whopping 6 points ahead of Labour (28% to 22%, with the Tories a lowly third place on 20%). The previous poll by Find Out Now — alongside Electoral Calculus — had Reform just two points clear.
A second poll by Techne ties Reform and Labour on 24%, whereas Techne's last poll had Labour one point ahead. If nothing else, this suggests the Rupert Lowe saga has done little to dent support for Nigel Farage's party. Set to clean up in local elections, Reform is also ahead in polling for Runcorn. So clear is this that Tory MP Esther McVey recently said her party should stand aside as part of an “electoral pact” with Reform UK.
This represents yet more bad news for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch — whose leadership of the Conservatives is fast becoming an asset to Reform — as McVey has defied the leader's position that no pact will take place. The bad news piles up as up to 60 Reform council candidates for May's local elections have defected from the Tories.
Don't miss... Bombshell poll predicts how many seats Reform will win at next election
It isn't just the Conservatives, however. Polling by Survation found over half of LabourList readers expect Labour to lose the Runcorn by-election and anticipate the party will lose a “significant number of seats” at local elections as well. Reform still has its risks as a challenger party of course. The odd unpalatable candidate still slips through the net, although the newly professionalised party quickly gets rid. Policy is also still thin, while Farage has his critics over both Lowe and support for US President Donald Trump.
Still, credibility is growing, policy being fleshed out, the Lowe debacle seems to be receding in the public consciousness (especially since one report appeared to back Reform's version of events), while Farage seems to have created some distance from Trump while still maintaining a valuable friendship.
Sponsored
Blissia| Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Blurry Vision & Fading Eyesight? Do This Immediately!
Undo
DON'T MISS
Powered by
Shocking new chart show Tories close to beating Labour at next election as Reform surges
47 Comments
Reform UK to launch campaign against housing asylum seekers in UK hotels
30 Comments
Experts predict Nigel Farage and Reform UK could be big winners in May 1 local elections
64 Comments
Bombshell poll predicts how many seats Nigel Farage's Reform will win at next election
905 Comments
'Boring old b*****ds!' Nigel Farage torches Tories with three-word takedown
146 Comments
Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy pledges ￡200k to boost May 1 election assault
81 Comments
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves one simple misstep away from disaster
19 Comments
Nightmare for Lib Dems as REFORM gains seat in thumping by-election win
194 Comments
Nigel Farage reveals his influence with Donald Trump has shrunk - surprising reason why
109 Comments
Kemi Badenoch in clash with BBC's Laura Kuenssberg over US trade deal
61 Comments
PMQs live: Kemi Badenoch to attack Keir Starmer in Commons clash
106 Comments
Nigel Farage blasts 'obsessed' Labour over Reform UK attacks
516 Comments
Nigel Farage fires warning shot at Starmer over Trump tariffs - 'nothing to do with it'
91 Comments
New chart reveals important stat which could help Nigel Farage and Reform at next election
156 Comments
Amazon Is Losing Money as Nevada Shoppers Are Canceling Prime for This Clever HackOnline Shopping Tools| Sponsored Sponsored
Undo
Sky's Trevor Phillips blasts 'unpleasant' Labour attack on Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch
95 Comments
I was in the room when Keir Starmer showed how worried Labour is by Reform
97 Comments
Here’s What a 6-Hour Gutter Upgrade Should Cost You In 2025HomeBuddy| Sponsored Sponsored
Undo
Top Tory Esther McVey urges Conservatives to let Reform win Runcorn by-election
80 Comments
Joy for Nigel Farage and Reform UK as 102-year-old record broken
219 Comments
Nigel Farage lands stinging Brexit swipe to Tories after Donald Trump hits UK with tariffs
229 Comments
Keir Starmer dealt huge poll blow in backlash at spring statement as Labour drops to third
421 Comments
Shocking new chart show Tories close to beating Labour at next election as Reform surges
47 Comments
Reform UK to launch campaign against housing asylum seekers in UK hotels
30 Comments
Experts predict Nigel Farage and Reform UK could be big winners in May 1 local elections
64 Comments
Bombshell poll predicts how many seats Nigel Farage's Reform will win at next election
905 Comments
'Boring old b*****ds!' Nigel Farage torches Tories with three-word takedown
146 Comments
Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy pledges ￡200k to boost May 1 election assault
81 Comments
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves one simple misstep away from disaster
19 Comments
Nightmare for Lib Dems as REFORM gains seat in thumping by-election win
194 Comments
Nigel Farage reveals his influence with Donald Trump has shrunk - surprising reason why
109 Comments
Kemi Badenoch in clash with BBC's Laura Kuenssberg over US trade deal
61 Comments
PMQs live: Kemi Badenoch to attack Keir Starmer in Commons clash
106 Comments
Nigel Farage blasts 'obsessed' Labour over Reform UK attacks
516 Comments
Nigel Farage fires warning shot at Starmer over Trump tariffs - 'nothing to do with it'
91 Comments
New chart reveals important stat which could help Nigel Farage and Reform at next election
156 Comments
Sky's Trevor Phillips blasts 'unpleasant' Labour attack on Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch
95 Comments
I was in the room when Keir Starmer showed how worried Labour is by Reform
97 Comments
Top Tory Esther McVey urges Conservatives to let Reform win Runcorn by-election
80 Comments
Joy for Nigel Farage and Reform UK as 102-year-old record broken
219 Comments
Nigel Farage lands stinging Brexit swipe to Tories after Donald Trump hits UK with tariffs
229 Comments
Keir Starmer dealt huge poll blow in backlash at spring statement as Labour drops to third
421 Comments
Shocking new chart show Tories close to beating Labour at next election as Reform surges
47 Comments
Reform UK to launch campaign against housing asylum seekers in UK hotels
30 Comments
Experts predict Nigel Farage and Reform UK could be big winners in May 1 local elections
64 Comments
Bombshell poll predicts how many seats Nigel Farage's Reform will win at next election
905 Comments
'Boring old b*****ds!' Nigel Farage torches Tories with three-word takedown
146 Comments
Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy pledges ￡200k to boost May 1 election assault
81 Comments
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves one simple misstep away from disaster
19 Comments
Throw all the rocks they might, Labour and the Tories are still playing catch-up with the Reform UK revolution. Of course — as the Lowe episode demonstrated — Farage's party could still be undone by internal strife as much as external threats.
READ MORE...
Trevor Phillips blasts 'unpleasant' Labour attack on Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage blasts 'obsessed' Labour over Reform UK attacks
Rupert Lowe's gun collection seized by police
SUBSCRIBE Invalid email
We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you've consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our Privacy Policy
Moreover, a change of leadership in the Conservative Party could remove one of Reform's greatest assets. Maybe Reform would do just as well against Robert Jenrick. Maybe not. Personally I think the optics of removing Badenoch would be horrific, however under fire she is.
Next month will reveal whether Reform's poll numbers are genuine and can translate into real electoral success or not. Right now, the Tories seem scared, a pact perhaps the best way of guarding against being the junior partner in any future coalition. More immediately, Runcorn looks set to go to Reform and, with it, a momentum built since last July set to strengthen.