While Central Asia is the backyard of China and Russia, the United States will be forced to pay less attention to the region as it deals with larger issues. At the same time Iran is expected to become a new major power broker through its new trade capabilities.
The United States is expected not to pay much attention to Central Asia despite its status as an important energy source and potential security risks, Cliff Kupchan, Chairman of the Eurasia Group, told valdaiclub.com.
While Russia is expected to remain the most influential player in Central Asia, and China is expected to remain a significant economic actor, the influence of Iran is expected to grow significantly to become also a major player in the region. At the same time, US initiatives for the region’s integration with South Asia face few prospects.
“Central Asia matters because it lies between two great powers and there are lots of energy resources. But in this age of a rising China, a rising ISIS threat from the Middle East and a rising chance that the EU fails, the US’ focus will be elsewhere,” Kupchan said.
Kupchan added that he does not consider the democracy promotion a major hindrance to US interests in the region. He added that the issue of democracy promotion can be balanced with US national interests in the region, but how it can be managed, depends on the US administration.
“Clearly, pushing democracy really hard will alienate and/or threaten a Central Asian state in question. So there is some trade-off and I think, that President Obama has done a better job at keeping lines of communication open, and effectively balancing the tradeoffs involved, than the previous president,” Kupchan added.
Kupchan is skeptical about energy initiatives, such as the CASA-1000 project, which aim to bring electricity from Central Asia to Pakistan through Afghanistan.
“Afghanistan needs to be backed out because essentially it’s a failed state right now and the Taliban is very strong. So any kind of power or energy initiative that includes Afghanistan, remains a pipe dream, not reality,” Kupchan said.
He added that integration in the region can continue on less controversial issues such as the environment, water resource management and healthcare.
According to Kupchan, Russia will remain the region’s most influential power in the foreseeable future, and Central Asian states felt economic pain from Russia’s downturn. Kupchan also said that the situation over Ukraine and Crimea created tension, though not distrust, between Russia and Central Asian states.
“Ukraine is a unique battleground between Russia and the West, but in my view, from the perspective of Central Asian governments, what happened is happened, and yes, there is a wariness of what might happen next,” Kupchan added.
According to Kupchan, Iran is the new power to keep in mind when it comes to changes in the Central Asian landscape because of its position and the lifting of sanctions. It makes the country a natural trading partner for Central Asia, and eventually, an influential power.
When it came to Turkey’s influence in the region, Kupchan said that the country is currently more concerned about domestic politics, including transition to a presidential system under Erdogan. He also noted that further confrontation with Russia appears unlikely for that reason, considering the importance of economic ties.
“Overall, the countries have a shared economic interest in keeping tensions in check, first, and secondly, Turkey cares a lot more about Turkish politics than it does about Russia,” Kupchan concluded.
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.