Putin has chosen the right time to promote his idea of the Eurasian Union and a common Eurasian space. The Warsaw summit on the Eastern partnership project attended by EU member states and Eastern European countries ended in failure not long before.

       During his first presidential term, Vladimir Putin managed to eradicate terrorism in Chechnya, stopped the economy's decline, stabilized society and eliminated the threat of the country’s disintegration. Russia began to surge up.

       During his second presidential term, he managed to achieve a 7% growth of the GDP and a 10%-12% increase in living standards. Russia launched its recovery.

       Having decided to run for a third presidential term, Putin plans to play a match on the Eurasian chessboard and consolidate Russia’s position in the world.

       In October, Putin published his article titled, “New integration project for Eurasia: Future born today,” in the Izvestia newspaper. In the article, he discussed the formation of the Eurasian Union on the basis of former Soviet republics. This center of power in the East is designed to match three major political poles represented by the United States, the EU and Asia.

       Relying on economic integration

       Putin has chosen the right time to promote his idea of the Eurasian Union and a common Eurasian space. The Warsaw summit on the Eastern partnership project attended by EU member states and Eastern European countries ended in failure not long before. Belarus did not attend the forum and Ukraine left before it ended. The pro-Western Georgia and Moldova also have not expressed a clear-cut attitude to the project.

       The formation of a common Eurasian space is yet another attempt to carry out the Russian idea of integration in the post-Soviet world. To reach this goal, Russia has already used CIS mechanisms and the ideas behind the Eurasian economic community and the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

       Putin emphasized that 2011 saw the advantages of the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, and the formation of the common economic space will start on this basis.

       However, Putin looks beyond these three countries. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are interested in joining the Customs Union and will help expand the common economic space. It will then be possible to upgrade the integration to the Eurasian Union. Like the EU, the Eurasian Union will develop into a supra-national monolith in which coordinated economic and monetary policy will play a key role.

       A recent trend today is the development of closed regional associations to counterbalance economic globalization. Joint efforts to counter crisis phenomena are becoming an important, common reaction to the crisis for regional organizations. This is true of the EU, the North American Free Trade Zone, the South American Common Market and ASEAN.

       Under these circumstances, Russia and other CIS countries have three options.

       First, they can preserve the status quo and settle for supplying natural resources and cheap manpower to other economies, in which case they will find themselves in the last rows of the world production chain and will have to give up on innovation technology.

       Second, they could rely on other economic centers, for instance, the EU. However, Ukraine, for one, has long been trying futilely to join the EU, and the EU itself is suffering from many ailments.

       As a result, the third option – to form one’s own structure – seems the most sensible.

       Putin voiced the idea a long time ago. During his presidency, he published an article about the Eurasian community in Sueddeutsche Zeitung, whereby he declared that the best option would be to form a common economic space stretching from Brest in France to Vladivostok in Russia.

       Proceeding from geopolitical conditions

       In 2000, a journalist asked Putin what he thought about the Soviet Union’s fall. Putin replied: “Those who do not regret the collapse of the Soviet Union have no heart, but those who want it restored have no brains.”

       Most people in Russia do not care about the death of the Soviet party system, but many express regrets over the superpower’s disintegration. The union’s restoration still remains an idea linking many people.

       Therefore, it is no surprise that Western politicians see the formation of the Eurasian Union as a threat, and accuse Putin of restoring the Soviet Union.

       Putin rejects such accusations and explains that the formation of the Eurasian Union is by no means a restoration of the Soviet Union. In his opinion, the Eurasian Union will be established on the basis of freedom, democracy and a market economy.

       However, it is an uphill road.

       First, it was not easy for the former Soviet republics to gain independence and none of them would like to forgo their political and economic rights for the sake of a super-alliance. It is enough to recall Viktor Yanukovych’s complaints about Russia’s attempts “to force Ukraine to join the Customs Union.”

       Second, is Russia ready for sacrifice itself? Former Soviet republics are unlikely to go for integration with Russia gratis. Its closest ally, Belarus, hopes to receive help from Moscow, but does not want to sell shares of major state companies. Ukraine is likely to consider accession to the Eurasian Union only if Russia reviews its natural gas prices. Only Kazakhstan can take part in the implementation of this project because it has sufficient funds and no fears about its independence.

       Third, the accession of former Soviet republics to the Eurasian Union will hardly be a boon for Russia. The Belarusian economy is highly unstable and if such poor countries as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan join the Eurasian Union, Moscow may face even bigger problems than the EU does over Greece.

       Fourth, some former Soviet republics are attracted to quite different integration mechanisms. Ukraine has long been dreaming of joining the EU. Even Russia itself is eager to expand its economic cooperation with Europe.

       Therefore, many analysts believe that a transition to a common Eurasian space is a difficult task. As for the formation of the Eurasian Union, its prospects are vague.

       Nonetheless, Russian public opinion polls have shown that Tsar Peter the Great received the highest approval among Russia’s leaders in the past few centuries, while former President, current Prime Minister and national leader Vladimir Putin has the highest rating among Russian politicians of this century.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.