Starmer says ceasefire in Gaza isn't 'correct position' in 2023
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Labour could be on course to lose four seats in the West Midlands - including that of Jess Phillips - if voting trends in last week’s regional mayor contest are replicated at the general election, a pollster has said.
Tory incumbent Andy Street was ousted by Labour challenger Richard Parker by just 1,508 votes on Thursday - but Marwan Riach has warned Sir Keir Starmer he could be punished by Muslim voters angry at his party’s stance on Gaza.
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Mr Riach, a data analyst with Electoral Calculus, shared an analysis via social media side X which highlighted the strong performance of independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob, who picked up 70,000 votes throughout the region, taking third place in the tight contest.
Mr Yakoob, a criminal defence lawyer who has the backing of Workers Party of Great Britain MP George Galloway, has since said he plans to stand in Birmingham Ladywood, currently held by Labour’s Shabana Mahmood.
Mr Riach commented in his accompanying post that his analysis took into account census data from 2021, how Birmingham voted overall in 2024, and how wards with similar demographics votes in last week’s elections.
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READ MORE: 'I can't be silent' - Lineker accuses Israel of ‘worst thing I’ve ever seen’
The general election is not yet a dead cert for Starmer's Labour party (Image: GETTY)
Shabana Mahmood's seat is also at risk, according to Marwan Riach (Image: Getty)
He pinpointed four constituencies in which Mr Yakoob came out on top: Ms Phillips’ Birmingham Yardley constituency, Birmingham Ladywood, Birmingham Perry Barr, represented by Khalid Mahmood, and the new constituency of Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley, which replaces Birmingham Hall Green, whose current MP is Tahir Ali. All of them have large Muslim populations.
The tensions swirling in the region were starkly illustrated prior to the confirmation of Mr Parker’s victory amid rumours that Mr Street was likely to hang on.
One Labour insider suggested Labour was at the end of a backlash over its refusal to condemn Israel’s military operation in Gaza, adding: “It’s the Middle East not West Midlands that will have won Street the mayoralty.
“Once again Hamas are the real villains.”
Akhmed Yakoob picked up 70,000 votes, taking third place (Image: Getty)
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The remark prompted widespread condemnation, with Ellie Reeves, Labour’s deputy national campaign coordinator, describing the language as “unacceptable” with “racist undertones”.
Mr Ali said: “Such anti-Muslim bigotry will only serve to alienate a community that has long supported Labour in its efforts to transform this country for the better.”
Ms Phillips added: “I’m glad that the Labour party have quickly condemned it.
“Journalists should I think be clearer about the nature of the source because this could just be some complete idiot no-mark with a Labour sticker on.”
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??????Election Data??????
This is my estimate of how the constituencies in Birmingham voted last Thursday in the West Midlands Mayoral race.
This takes into account:
1) Census 2021 data
2) How Birmingham voted overall in 2024
3) How wards with similar demographics voted in #LE2024 pic.twitter.com/jkt10Bu9Ja
— Marwan???????????????????????? (@MarwanData) May 10, 2024
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Speaking in October, Sir Keir said Israel had the right to withhold power and water from Gaza. He subsequently reversed his position but still refused to back ceasefire demands.
Dozens of Labour MPs then defied the party whip by supporting a Scottish National party motion in the House of Commons.
Labour has a total of 15 MPs in the West Midlands: Liam Byrne MP for Hodge Hill; Jack Dromey MP for Birmingham Erdington; Colleen Fletcher MP for Coventry North East; Taiwo Owatemi MP for Coventry North West; Zarah Sultana MP for Coventry South; Preet Gill MP for Birmingham Edgbaston; Khalid Mahmood MP for Birmingham Perry Barr; Shabana Mahmood MP for Birmingham Ladywood; Steve McCabe MP for Birmingham Selly Oak; Pat McFadden MP for Wolverhampton South East; Jess Phillips MP for Birmingham Yardley; Tahir Ali MP for Birmingham Hall Green; John Spellar MP for Warley; Valerie Vaz MP for Walsall South; and Matt Western MP for Warwick and Leamington.
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