Turkey and Russia are natural players in Middle East developments in a historical context, and both countries continue to play their roles. But there will be no political unity between the two countries as far as Turkey remains in NATO and continues its negotiations with the EU. Turkey joining the Customs Union seems possible but not realistic.

       The recent visit of the Turkish prime minister to St. Petersburg was overshadowed by the policy differences of Turkey and Syria. Furthermore, regional and global developments since the last meeting have made Turkey’s image abroad not as strong this time as it was during the last meeting. Turkey’s "precious loneliness" following the Arab Spring has become more and more visible and the "failure of zero problems with neighboring countries" has already become a fact. This means, as recent polls from Istanbul-based Turkish Research Institute TESEV show, Turkey is no longer the most "beloved country," and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdo？an is no longer the most "beloved leader" in the Islamic world. Russia and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are on the rise, and it is generally accepted that President Putin is winning in the "new Middle East."

       However, Turkey and Russia remain the most important countries in terms of trade and cooperation in this part of the world, and it seems that the two countries will continue to strengthen their economic and political ties. With the lifting of the visa regime and the plans for the world-class Akkuyu nuclear energy plant, Turkey and Russia have the luxury to keep their political differences over regional conflicts without worsening their economic and social ties. The St. Petersburg meeting was in this respect "business as usual," and Russia remains the number one trading partner for Turkey in the short and medium perspective. Turkey’s energy needs will still be the determining factor in their relations, but many regional projects in the Caucasus and Central Asia will also be realized. Developing their economic integration in different fields, Turkey and Russia are becoming more trusting towards one another. There are no serious problems expected between the two countries, as long as Prime Minister Erdo？an and President Putin remain in power. Their "exceptional chemistry towards each other" is probably the most important factor when it comes to maintaining strong economic ties and world class projects.

       Turkey’s trade with Russia is expected to reach 100 billion dollars or more in the coming years. It is a very pragmatic expectation, as the growth rates of both countries will continue to increase in the next decade. This means that in 2023, Turkey and Russia will probably be the leading countries in regional development and integration processes. Political stability in both countries seems to be in place. In Turkey, even in the event of a possible government’s change following the 2015 elections there will probably be no change in its economic and political relations towards Russia. Many opportunities are on the horizon, including a number of infrastructure projects, from highway construction to interregional railway connections, as well as in the defense sector. There is also potential in the development and transfer of technology. Energy, particularly energy imports, will certainly account for the lion's share in their economic relations. Turkey is looking for new energy alternatives and diversification, but it will not be possible to realize this in the next five years. So, for the time being, Russia remains the number one energy provider for Turkey.

       The general view is that Turkey’s policy towards Syria will be considered a failed one. Indeed, the Turkish government from the very beginning made miscalculations in the case of Syria, and as a result, nearly 1 million Syrian refugees are in Turkey, creating social problems and representing a human tragedy. No doubt, Turkey’s miscalculation and its policy line have contributed to the emergence of this Syrian human drama.

       In St. Petersburg, both Turkey and Russia held fast in their positions, and this "compartmental thinking" on both sides will not hinder their bilateral relations. Turkey is now shaping a "U-Turn policy," or more accurately, a "repair policy" with Syria, with Turkey no longer supporting radical Islamist groups that are fighting the Assad regime and the Army. Again, Turkey’s international image is as a supporter of radical Islamist groups, and the Russian government is also aware of this. Therefore, Turkey is no longer a decisive actor concerning the Syrian opposition, and they do not listen to the Turkish government as before. After Turkey’s position concerning the military government in Egypt and the expulsion of Turkish Ambassador Hüseyin Avni Botsal？ as a persona non grata, Turkey now has no ambassadors in Israel, Syria and Egypt. According to the common view of political analysts, including in Turkey, this is the end of its "zero problems" with neighboring countries.

       Indeed, Turkey should be trying to convince the opposition to go to the Geneva II meeting in January, but this looks to be more difficult now. The opposition will be convinced by other powers involved in the conflict. Turkey has lost its leading position in this conflict and is becoming more and more lonely with its Syrian policy.

       The question of Turkey’s admission to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization seems to be a political joke, and is not considered to be serious. Turkey’s desire to join the organization created some confusion, also among the Turkish public, and seems to be more of an exotic idea than a realistic one. Indeed, Turkey is a NATO country, and in the last few days, this debate on Turkey's possible admission to the SCO has lost its magic, leaving behind the ghost of realism. Turkey’s relations with the EU will be still complicated and long-lasting, but Erdo？an’s request is infused with no concrete aims or expectations. Of course, Turkey’s search for other forms of organizational integration will persist, but there is no alternative to Turkey's EU bid. Prime Minister Erdo？an’s course remains pointed towards the EU.

       Turkey and Russia are natural players in Middle East developments in a historical context, and both countries continue to play their roles. But there will be no political unity between the two countries as far as Turkey remains in NATO and continues its negotiations with the EU.

       Turkey joining the Customs Union seems possible but not realistic. However, the meeting in St. Petersburg showed once again that Turkey and Russia have their differences in some issues, but both countries are growing more and more dependent on each other, and this will continue into the future. In the last 10 years since Tayyip Erdo？an has been in power, Turkish-Russian relations have experienced the greatest trust in the last 250 years. This process seems to be continuing in a positive way also into the next decade, when Turkey will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its foundation. The figure of Russia as a reliable partner in 2023 would resemble that of the Soviet Union supporting Turkey politically and economically in its young days as a republic. Today, Turkey needs Russia and Russia needs Turkey as never before since the end of the Cold War. The St. Petersburg meeting in late November served as further confirmation of this political reality.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.