Vladislav Surkov’s departure from the Kremlin is the most significant event in Russian politics in 2011. Now the politically engaged portion of society is awaiting changes, liberalization and other positive developments, but I believe this is all a long way off.

       The second most important event was the decision announced by Vladimir Putin, and later supported by Dmitry Medvedev, for the two members of the ruling tandem to swap places. This had a significant impact on parliamentary elections in Russia. Left-wing parties took advantage of this opportunity to win seats in the State Duma and increase their representation there.

       Other events of the past year pale in comparison to these two.

       The loss of influence by United Russia in regional elections was a gradual process. It became clear that the ruling party was in serious need of rebranding, but it ignored the symptoms and its ailment became chronic.

       The influence of the demonstrations in the wake of the Duma elections could have been considered important if they had produced results. The protest sentiments unleashed but not harnessed during the vote – I’m referring to the support for the Communists, Liberal-Democrats and even A Just Russia – ultimately fuelled the rallies of December 10 and 24. They were staged in a civilized manner but failed to formulate clear ideas that could win people’s hearts and minds. This is why I don’t think that these rallies will have much impact on Russian politics.

       Medvedev’s proposals to reform the political system, which he made in his speech to the Federal Assembly, had been developed long before the rallies and just happened to be made public against this backdrop.

       Russia will fully preserve its current political system, albeit in a simplified version. Screws will have to be loosened to make the political structure more stable. If they are tightened the structure may become fragile and collapse. But if there is some wiggle room in the structure, for instance, direct elections of governors, or simplified registration of candidates, or at least some hope for this, it will help fortify the structure against the protest sentiments that are likely to develop.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.