EU Made Simple channel predicts which country is most likely to join EU
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The European Union consists of 27 member states, down from 28 as a result of Brexit.
But while Britain quit the bloc following the 2016 referendum, there are several notable nations which never actually joined the continental club in the first place.
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Three of them - Switzerland, Norway and Iceland - are the subjects of a video shared on the EU Made Simple YouTube channel, which boasts more than 80,000 subscribers.
And there remains the remote possibility of two of them signing up, narrator Lambertus Robben suggests the prospect of a third doing so is a long shot to say the very least.
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Ursula von der Leyen is unlikely to convince one notable European nation to join the bloc (Image: GETTY)
Norway
Norway has made attempts to join the EU on two notable occasions, the video’s narrator explains.
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Initially, it applied to what was then called the European Economic Community in 1962.
However, when France under President Charles de Gaulle vetoed the UK application to join the EEC in 1963 in 1967, Norway's bid was indirectly affected, because its application was contingent on the UK becoming a member.
Protracted negotiations concluded in 1972, leading to a referendum in which the Norwegian people voted against joining in a referendum in 1994, since when the Scandinavian country has not pursued full membership.
Mr Robben explains: “The big problem is fish. Norway plays a significant emphasis on maintaining control over its fishery sector, which is a vital part of its economy. If Norway were to join the EU, it would have to follow the EU's Common Fisheries policy.
“There are also economic concerns beyond fisheries noise, vast natural resources, especially oil and gas play a pivotal role in its economy.
“Some Norwegians are concerned that EU membership might impact the country's autonomy over these resources.
“Then there's national sovereignty. Many Norwegians are cautious about ceding aspects of their sovereignty to Brussels and the broader administrative structure.”
Norway is keen to protect its fishing industry, said Mr Robben (Image: Getty)
Iceland
Iceland, the chilly island lodged between the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, applied to join the EU in 2009 in the aftermath of the financial crisis, with many believing membership might offer greater economic stability.
However, after a change in government in 2013, the country's enthusiasm cooled toward EU accession shifted and the application process stalled.
Much like Norway, Iceland is concerned about safeguarding its fishing industry.
The EU Made Simple narrator adds: “Beyond fisheries concerns about maintaining national sovereignty, potential impacts on the small but protected agriculture sector and the advantages of having control over their own currency have also influenced the debate.
“While Icelanders have never voted in a referendum specifically on EU membership, public sentiment has shifted over time, influenced by both domestic and international events, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine.”
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Iceland has never been a member of the European Union either (Image: Getty)
Switzerland
The Swiss, with their longstanding tradition of neutrality, have shown little interest in joining the bloc.
Berne did consider joining the European Economic Area more than 30 years ago, but after a rejection by the Swiss electorate in a 1992 referendum, the idea was scrapped.
The video’s narrator says: “In fact, in 2018, a survey found that only three even considered joining the EU a possibility.
“This reluctance stems not just from their commitment to neutrality, but also from their unique political and economic circumstances.”
Switzerland’s system of direct democracy where key decisions often put to public referendums would make surrendering decision-making power to Brussels “problematic”.
The narrator says: “Over the years, Switzerland has negotiated a series of bilateral agreements with the EU, granting them many of the benefits of the single market without perceived drawbacks of full membership.
“These agreements for many in Switzerland represent the best of both worlds.”
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EU Made Simple's video looks at the reasons why the three countries have never joined the bloc (Image: EU Made Simple)
As for which of the three nations highlighted is most likely to join the bloc, EU Made Simple’s narrator says: “We don't believe any of these three countries will join the EU anytime soon.
“But we know for sure that Switzerland isn't keen on the idea at all.
“Public opinion on joining is incredibly low, and the country's dedication to neutrality is simply too fierce.
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“It would take a string of massive geopolitical events to sway the Swiss people over to a pro-EU side.
“Overall, Iceland is probably the most likely to join up the three as it's already part of the EEA. It has close ties to the EU, and a decisive referendum on joining has never been held.
“Still, we see no big reason for any of these countries to join at the moment.”
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