Russia should consider coming up with a western policy concept using the old ideas of Germany’s eastern policy. A “conservative revolution” is unfolding in Russia as a response to the western postmodern mindset, but there are a lot of conservatives and traditionalists in the West as well. Russia should renew its dialogue with the EU on the creation of a free-trade zone, and could get there by accelerating the adoption of WTO rules.

       The question of whether Germany should update its Ostpolitik, or “eastern policy,” is currently being actively debated in the country. In the early 1970s, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Willy Brandt successfully implemented a new eastern policy by making an offer to the Soviet Union to engage in mutually beneficial trade by selling Germany, among other things, gas, in exchange for western technologies, rather than continuing the arms race. The idea behind this project was simple: stepping up economic ties eased political confrontation between the two blocks, enabling Western powers to influence democratic processes in Eastern Europe. The level of trust that was built between Moscow and Bonn at that time facilitated the rapprochement of the two countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Building on the tools of their Ostpolitik, chancellors Helmut Kohl and Gerhard Schroeder succeeded in establishing close, if not allied, relations between Russia and Germany.

       The expansion of the European Union and NATO to the east to include former socialist states in their ranks has put Germany’s commitment to its eastern policy on hold. Fearing Russia’s neo-imperialist aspirations, they were reluctant to bring Russia closer to Europe. The emergence of new geopolitical conflicts between the United States and Russia further limited Germany’s ability to act. A new era started in Germany in 2006, with the arrival of Angela Merkel to power. The new chancellor is convinced that a “sacred union” with the United States is the only option for Germany. This is what she stands for. Even facts disclosed by Edward Snowden that German citizens and politicians were spied on by American secret services did nothing to change her mind.

       Europe now stands at a decisive junction. The United States is doing what it can to lure Europeans into a new super-block by establishing a US-EU free trade zone. Americans promise that their shale gas will replace gas imports from Russia. As a matter of fact, the US is in desperate need of reliable export markets, as its industrial output is expanding on the back of cheap domestic fuel. The EU is thus expected to drive the US economy out of the crisis. Should the two succeed in quickly establishing a powerful economic union (which could be a stepping stone to a political one), such powers as Russia, China and India would have to adjust to the new global economic landscape, which would be determined by Washington and Brussels. In this scenario, such existing global governance mechanisms as the IMF, the G8, the World Bank and NATO are likely to be reinvigorated, while alternative organizations, including the BRICS Forum, the G20, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Union, could be neutralized.

       In this new geopolitical environment, Ukraine has suddenly become a key element. Kiev is currently at a crossroads, and has to choose whether to move closer to the EU and become an associated member of the new transatlantic powerhouse, or to benefit from converging with the Eurasian Union.

       The European continent could find itself split again, with Western and Central Europe becoming an integral part of a new transatlantic formation, part of Eurasia associated with that block, while Russia would give up on this region in favor of partnering with China. The reasons that make America a more desirable partner for Europeans than a “common European home” are beyond Russia’s understanding. This is largely attributable to the fact that EU members and the United States share the same liberal values, recognize the supremacy of law and have a common perspective on international security. As the Middle East slides further into chaos, Europeans are afraid to be left alone in this dangerous world without protection from the presumably almighty America.

       What Russia should do in such circumstances is stick with Europe by all means, since it plays a crucial role in the modernization of Russia’s economy and society. Russia’s nascent middle class wants a European, not an Asian, future for the country. This does not imply giving in to Washington’s dream of relegating Russia to a subordinated, albeit exclusive, role in its relations with the West. China should not be viewed as an alternative, since having a biased interest in getting its own benefits from cooperation with the U.S. and EU, Beijing is reluctant to support Russia when conflicts with Western powers emerge. The episode with Snowden being forced to leave Hong Kong for Russia illustrates this attitude.

       Russia should consider coming up with a western policy concept using the old ideas of Germany’s eastern policy. A “conservative revolution” is unfolding in Russia as a response to the western postmodern mindset, but there are a lot of conservatives and traditionalists in the West as well. Russia should renew its dialogue with the EU on the creation of a free-trade zone, and could get there by accelerating the adoption of WTO rules. A privileged dialogue would be highly desirable with Central European countries that are suffering from a prolonged recession and are eager to step up trade with Russia. The key issue is to find joint solutions for dealing with the explosive situation in Afghanistan after the U.S. withdraws its troops. Cooperating on Afghanistan is essential for reaching common ground on Syria and Iran. If Russia gives rise to a positive western policy, it would make it easier for Germany, with its friendly attitude towards Russia, to resume a constructive eastern policy.

       This article was originally published in Известия newspaper

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.