MOSCOW — Russia on Friday spelled out its demands for sweeping new security guarantees from the United States and NATO, demanding pledges that would halt NATO eastward expansion and block U.S. military ties with former Soviet states.
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The central tenets of Russia “sphere of influence” doctrine — including demands for an effective veto on other nations’ foreign and security policies — have repeatedly been dismissed as non-starters by NATO officials.
But the latest announcement by the Kremlin underscores its confrontation with the West over Ukraine, which Russia views as part of its political orbit.
Russia published two lists of demands — to Washington and NATO — the latter calling for the removal of all NATO military infrastructure installed in Eastern European countries after 1997, effectively seeking to rework the consequences of the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 that left Russia weakened for years.
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The demands on NATO would also prevent the alliance carrying out any military activity outside its territory in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine has raised Western alarm that President Vladimir Putin may be weighing a new attack on Ukraine, where Western-allied forces have battled Russian-backed separatists since 2014 in eastern regions. Russia denies it plans any move across the border, but has used the crisis to press its demands that Ukraine remains out of NATO.
In a video meeting last week, President Biden warned Putin that Russia would face tough new sanctions, in the case of a military escalation against Ukraine. The European Union is also debating possible new sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine.
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Ukrainians in Kyiv voiced concern on Dec. 15, as the threat of another Russian invasion has some in the region on edge. (The Washington Post)
Russia’s demand that NATO bar the admission of Ukraine, Georgia or any other country on NATO’s eastern flank has long been ruled out by the alliance. Analysts saw the expansive reach of Moscow’s demands as potentially dooming hopes of a political compromise with Ukraine and increasing the chances of conflict.
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“Moscow has not only been asking for things it cannot get, but in a way they know will ensure they cannot attain them. Serious negotiations are done behind closed doors. Something is very wrong with this picture,” tweeted military analyst Michael Kofman, of the CNA security think tank, adding that Russia’s mounting demands “should make one pessimistic about the trajectory.”
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The deal Russia seeks with the United States — which is certain to be rejected by Washington — would significantly weaken Ukraine, forcing it to abandon its aspirations to join NATO, and cutting Kyiv off from the U.S. military aid and weapons. Since 2014, Ukraine’s Western-allied forces have battled Russia-backed separatists in the country’s east in a conflict that had claimed nearly 13,000 lives.
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Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, amplified the pressure from Moscow, calling for urgent action to begin talks immediately.
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“There is no readiness to even enter into negotiations from the other side, but let’s see what happens next,” he said.
Russia sees Ukraine as a crucial security buffer and sphere of influence, with Moscow officials from Putin down questioning its stability and sovereignty in recent months. The Kremlin’s irritation with Ukraine’s tilt toward Europe and Kyiv’s pressure to join NATO has boiled over into anger over at NATO’s post-Cold War expansion into Eastern Europe and the Baltic States that began in the late 1990s.
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At a meeting with foreign ministry officials last month, Putin griped about NATO’s refusal to hear Russia’s complaints about the bloc’s expansion and called on top Russian diplomats to hammer out a tough new security deal from the Western alliance, including written guarantees.
Some analysts warned Friday that the chances of compromise appeared to be receding, given the Russia’s escalating demands.
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Earlier this week, Russia sent the draft security agreement to the United States ruling out Washington deploying weapons or forces outside its territory, “where such deployment would be perceived by the other party as a threat to its national security.”
It calls on Washington “to refuse to admit to the [NATO] alliance states that were previously part of the U.S.S.R.,” which includes Ukraine and Georgia.
The draft agreement also demanded that the United States would not establish military bases on the territory of former Soviet states outside NATO nor “use their infrastructure for any military activity, or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.”
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This would rule out Washington negotiating with Central Asian states on the possibility of stationing U.S. bases in the region to enable it to confront Islamic State groups in Afghanistan.
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“We do not set any deadlines. We are inviting them to begin the negotiations without delays and without stalling,” Ryabkov said.
Immediate reactions from military analysts were gloomy. The proposal was “hardly serious. A smokescreen,” tweeted Alexander Graeff of German think tank, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy.
The director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, Dmitry Trenin, said it appeared that Moscow did not believe NATO would accept the demands, meaning that Russia would likely try to assure its security through military means.
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Adding to the rising military tensions, Russia announced Friday it was developing new missiles designed to penetrate U.S. missile defenses including hypersonic weapons, where Russia claims an advantage.
“In order to retain our advantage in this area, research centers are working together with defense plants on new systems to penetrate missile defense, including a missile system with hypersonic warheads,” Strategic Missile Forces commander Sergei Karakayev told the defense ministry newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda.
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He said Russia would intensify test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles, with more than 10 planned next year, compared 25 in the past five years.
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“If we look at the statistics of launches over the past five years, I think you understand how intensive and challenging the next year is going to be,” he said.
Read more:
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