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Elections in Ukraine: Some Unexpected Results
2021-06-30 00:00:00.0     Analytics(分析)-Expert Opinions(专家意见)     原网页

       

       For Ukraine, it was a very good election – an election that demonstrated that the country, despite all the huge problems it has, has managed to build up a more or less functional system of pluralistic democracy. There are two major parties, which have real ambitions to obtain power, as well as some other minor parties, but with a relatively clear electorate.

       ValdaiClub.com interview with Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor–in–Chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, member of the Valdai Discussion Club.

       What is your assessment of the latest parliamentary elections in Ukraine?

       It was a very quiet election. There was nothing sensational, and there were no surprises. There were from several parties – for example, the party of the biggest sports celebrity, Mr. Klitschko, received fewer votes than expected, while the Nationalist party got slightly more than expected. But basically, I think the results of the election were pretty representative. They seem to more or less reflect the mood in Ukraine. And we see that the general framework is actually quite like a normal European consolidation of power. There are two major parties, which have real ambitions to obtain power, as well as some other minor parties, but with a relatively clear electorate – except Klitschko's party, but his party is another typical phenomenon for contemporary Europe, because in many countries, we see the emergence of some new forces, most likely very short-lived ones, but still.

       Finally, to summarize, I can say that for Ukraine, it was a very good election – an election that demonstrated that the country, despite all the huge problems it has, has managed to build up a more or less functional system of pluralistic democracy.

       In your opinion, what was the key to success for these parties – for the nationalist party Liberty, and for Klitschko's party, Strike?

       In case of Klitschko's party, it's very clear: it is a new face, a very famous person...

       He's a boxer, he's not a politician.

       He's not a politician, but this is his advantage, because the people in Ukraine are extremely tired of all the faces that they already know. As for the nationalists, the success of the nationalist party Liberty was quite predictable, because they managed to get the sympathies of those who lost the parties they could vote for – after the collapse of the Orange coalition, after the de facto disappearance of Viktor Yushchenko and his political force, after deep disappointment in Tymoshenko's party. This part of radical nationalists, or people who are nationally oriented in the western part of Ukraine, sought some kind of replacement. And in this case, it was the Liberty party, which until now had been quite successful in regional and municipal elections – in Ternopil, in Lviv and in Ivano-Frankivsk. And now they have consolidated this electorate, which was sufficient to get seats in the national parliament.

       How will Russian-Ukrainian relations change after these parliamentary elections?

       I don't think the Russian-Ukrainian relationship will change, because the situation is basically the same. The Party of Regions is the ruling party. It will now have more opportunities to maneuver, because the emergence of nationalism in the national parliament will give it the opportunity to manipulate with nationalists, and to provoke very loud campaigns within parliament launched by nationalists, who will, so to speak, defend national sovereignty against all ideas to integrate with Russia. It seems that Ukraine and nationalists are pretty governed, pretty manipulated by the oligarchs who pay for them. And by the way, that's another specific feature of Ukrainian politics -- they have a variety of parties, and they have a variety of instruments in parliament, but the source of financing of all these parties is basically the same.

       Will Ukraine continue maneuvering between the European Union and Russia?

       Ukraine will try to continue maneuvering between the European Union and Russia. The problem for them is that the European Union, first of all, is very much tired of Ukraine. Second, the European Union is deeply involved in numerous internal problems, and they just don't have much money and political will to seriously get involved in Ukrainian affairs. And, by the way, the reaction to the election results in Europe was officially moderate, but unofficially very negative. If you read the press, they say it's a country where democracy is deteriorating, where oligarchs are ruling, and so on.

       As for Russia, I think that the Russian position will be the same as before. Russia is not active, Russia is waiting. Because Russia believes that the Ukrainian economic situation is so dangerous, that sooner or later, they will need to seriously consider joining the Customs Union, which I'm not sure is right, because for economic reasons, this would be very beneficial for Ukraine, but for political reasons, it would be very risky for any Ukrainian president to make this decision. So again, they will try to maneuver, but the external situation has changed, and the parts that they used to maneuver between, are less interested in playing this game.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.

       


标签:综合
关键词: Ukrainian     nationalist party     nationalists     Ukraine     European     Liberty     Klitschko's party     Union     Russia    
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