Fears of the ‘Chinese threat’ are based on the assumption that a rising China will have to ‘expand’ to neighboring Russian territories to feed the country’s continued economic growth. But China’s core strategic interests are quite different – China needs good and stable relations with Russia, as a ‘rearguard’ in its global competition with the U.S.

       Recent reporting on ‘China’s expansion to Siberia and the Far East’, ‘China preparing to lease half of Vladivostok’, etc. highlights the problem of media and public perceptions of Russian-Chinese relations. Officially they are labeled as ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ based on mutual trust and good personal relationships at a high political level. For proof, look no further than Vladimir Putin’s state visit to China in early June. But this is precisely why we need to seriously consider public perceptions of relations between Russia and China, which are entering a stage of steady and comprehensive development.

       Fears of the ‘Chinese threat’ are based on the assumption that a rising China will have to ‘expand’ to neighboring Russian territories to feed the country’s continued economic growth. But China’s core strategic interests are quite different – China needs good and stable relations with Russia, as a ‘rearguard’ in its global competition with the U.S.

       China’s economic might should not scare Russia, as the development of Siberia and Russia’s Far Eastern regions is becoming one of the country’s top priorities. New institutions are being created, such as the Ministry of Siberian and Far Eastern Development (Minvostokstroi) and the State Corporation for Siberian and Far Eastern Development, to facilitate the development of these remote territories, in accordance with the Russian-Chinese Plan of Cross-Border Cooperation (2009-2018) between the two governments.

       These institutions are also designed to combat corruption and bureaucratic red tape in the region, both of which impede development. The successful example of neighboring China could change minds among the local population in Siberia and the Far East. The recent poll by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center shows that about 60% of respondents who intend to leave the region due to unemployment and low wages would stay if Chinese companies launch large scale and long-term joint development projects there.

       It is obvious that bilateral trade and economic relations in general will be driven by China and Russia’s modernization bids. The Russian-Chinese ‘partnership for modernization’, if to be modeled in a smart way, would allow China to get access to Russian resources and competitive technologies, while Russia would benefit from Chinese financial and economic might, as well as from imported high technology and industrial production facilities. In this way, Russia and China would reinforce each other’s push for comprehensive modernization.

       Bilateral trade may well reach the mutually agreed benchmark of $200 billion by 2020, and even go higher, to levels enjoyed by China’s key trade partners, such as the U.S., Japan, The Republic of Korea, etc. To achieve this, Russia and China need to establish a financial and investment framework, including, among other things, ruble/yuan direct currency exchange, institutional support for mutual direct investment and joint crediting of large-scale bilateral projects, which would help gradually change the structure of the Russian exports to China in favor of high-end goods over energy and raw materials.

       However, cooperation in the energy sector will remain paramount for both sides in the years to come. This could include not only export of traditional energy resources to China (natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, etc.), but also bilateral cooperation in shale gas and green energy technologies. If Russia succeeds in becoming a key partner of China’s strategic move to nuclear energy, Russian-Chinese energy cooperation will truly transform the global energy market.

       Insufficient infrastructure in Russian-Chinese cross-border cooperation poses the biggest challenge to the development of bilateral relations. A lack of border checkpoints, proper highways, bridges, etc., especially on the Russian side, will be the most serious problem to be dealt with.

       In sum, the interface of Russian-Chinese relations is set to change drastically. Not only officials, businessmen and journalists of both countries, but also millions of ordinary Russians and Chinese will have to communicate and to interact on a regular basis. Bilateral cultural and people-to-people ties should be raised to a much higher level, including cultural, youth and student exchanges, cross-culture marriages, etc. The Russian elite and ordinary people should finally shed their fear of Chinese expansion, and an ideology of opening up Siberia and the Far East for development and cooperation should prevail in Russia.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.