Things may change in the coming months, and the president-prime minister swap could result in a difficult move to accomplish or, at least, to keep on the scene for a reasonable period. Many people in Russia still don’t see any sense in Putin and Medvedev exchanging jobs, and if there is a second wave of the financial and economic crisis this could become a major issue.

       A fifteen points drop is not a minor blow for a party, and the loss of a constitutional majority certainly complicates things, but for Vladimir Putin, the elections on Sunday, December 4th might turn out to be a ‘useful’ defeat. For the current Russian prime minister who wants to return to the Kremlin, the real prize is the presidency, and that, for sure, has to be a one shot target. If Putin wins the presidency in the first round next March – as he likely will – United Russia’s weak showing in the Duma elections will go down as minor damage, to be managed with the help of amiable parties, such as Fair Russia and the Liberal Democrats.

       The problem for the prime minister now is to get through Dmitry Medvedev’s reaction to the initial results on Sunday: "This is democracy," the president said, interpreting the weak electoral outcome as strong evidence that the elections were transparent. We lost so many votes, the reasoning goes, and this shows that we did not cheat. The central point is the ‘legitimacy’ of the electoral process: if one out of every two voters chooses a party, that party is more than legitimate, but if most voters think the results were rigged, then legitimacy has to be won regardless of the electoral outcome.

       The paradox is that United Russia would surely have won in any case, without cyber attacks on independent sites or pressure to get people to the polls. The result – nearly 50% of the vote – might look disappointing, but when president Medvedev calls it “real democracy in action”, he has a point. Much depends on how many people will share his view and on the tandem’s next agenda item – if the tandem survives, of course.

       The early death of the diarchy might be a first consequence of the Duma election setback. Putin has promised Medvedev the post of prime minister in 2012, given voters support United Russia party and Putin’s candidacy in the upcoming presidential election. Now, the prime minister has decided to declare the election to the State Duma “a success” and this means Medvedev will head the next government, at least according to current plans.

       But things may change in the coming months, and the president-prime minister swap could result in a difficult move to accomplish or, at least, to keep on the scene for a reasonable period. Many people in Russia still don’t see any sense in Putin and Medvedev exchanging jobs, and if there is a second wave of the financial and economic crisis this could become a major issue.

       Another result could be the end of United Russia as the Kremlin electoral machine: the idea of reviving it through the launch of the so-called Russian Popular Front did not work, and creating a new party could be Putin’s next plan. But the biggest mistake would be not taking advantage of the difficult moment to give real signs that change is possible. It is in this regard that the December 4th vote – though deceptive for United Russia and difficult to handle a few months before the presidential election – has to be transformed into a positive lesson.

       Putin should not ignore the demand for change and for real innovation of the political scene, of the economy and, ultimately, of the country itself. In the absence of alternatives, the Duma election result can be used as a new electoral mandate in order to accept the real challenge: embarking on the much discussed – and much postponed – reforms Russia needs now more than ever.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.