There is strong concern Russia will seek to stop Armenia leaving its orbit (Image: Getty)
Armenia could be the next state to fall to Vladimir Putin’s aggression, according to champions of the ancient nation who want it to thrive as a Western-style democracy. The Foreign Office has described stopping Russian efforts to destabilise Armenia as a “priority for the UK”, but campaigners warn the country’s future is under threat.
The UK Government says it has supported Armenia’s efforts to “remove itself from Russia’s orbit” but there is concern the nation of around three million people is in danger of “destruction”. David Grigorian, a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a leading figure in Armenia’s National Democratic Alliance, warns that if Putin is able to seize eastern Ukraine, he will then turn his attention to Armenia.
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Mr Grigorian wants Armenia to join NATO and claims a “disaster is brewing now before our eyes”. A top concern is that Russia could support an invasion of Armenia by neighbouring Azerbaijan.
Armenia and Russia were once seen as allies but last month Armenia’s parliament started the first step towards joining the European Union.
Former defence minister Tobias Ellwood said: “Russia’s grip on Armenia is slipping, and Putin won’t let go without a fight.” He said that Armenia’s decision to break with Russia’s answer to NATO – the Collective Security Treaty Organization – has “made it a target for Moscow’s hybrid warfare”. This includes “cyber-attacks, coups, and covert meddling”.
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He said: “The UK must stay vigilant, back Armenia’s sovereignty, and push back against Russian subversion. This is about more than Armenia — it’s about deterring Moscow’s next move in its empire-rebuilding playbook.”
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Armenia and Azerbaijan – which have battled for control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region – are reportedly on the verge of signing a peace treaty, but Mr Grigorian claims this could be the prelude to further attacks. In September 2023, tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians fled Nagorno-Karabakh when it was seized by Azerbaijan in a lightning-offensive, and the academic argues the new settlement could leave Armenia in a position of strategic weakness.
He said: “Given the geopolitical and economic reality, Armenia will cease to be a viable state if this arrangement is allowed to proceed.”
The next attacks, he added, could come in a “matter of months”.
Mr Grigorian denounced the deal as a “plan to humiliate another nation” which “wants to live free of Russian tyranny”. He warned it is a “formula for a new war and not peace”.
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He said: “Friends of Armenia around the world should raise their voices against the destruction of Armenia, the first Christian nation that found itself alone against an overwhelming destructive force. Standing up for the little guy may not be popular these days, but remains the moral thing to do.”
Britain has encouraged Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign their peace agreement “as soon as possible to secure it”.
A government source said: “We stand firmly against persistent Kremlin attempts to use disinformation, criminal and covert activities, and corruption to undermine sovereignty and democratic processes.”