Russia is pretty immune from the influence of outside leaders or thinkers. There is, however, a social stratum that influenced how others view Russia – a “Russian creative/middle class”; it showed that Russian society is dynamic, self-critical and future oriented – a partner for global society.

       Valdaiclub.com interview with Piotr Dutkiewicz, Professor of Political Science, Director of the Center for Governance and Public Policy at Carleton University, Ottawa, member of the Valdai Discussion Club Advisory Board.

       What are the 3 most important developments in the Russian internal policy?

       I would say there are three in one caused by Vladimir V. Putin returning to the post of President. This carries with it three major implications. First is the dynamic stability of political power for the next six years (that means stability of the core of the political system and a lot of changes of government officials and prominent Russian political actors); second is a changing approach to the industrialization of Russia (in fact, the return to the idea of re-industrialization with deep implications for the new opening to foreign and domestic capital and a new wave of privatization to come); third, a new “anti-corruption campaign” (that in practice means the re-subordination of the un-ruled bureaucracy - to make them more accountable and less sovereign - in order to proceed with centrally-based policies).

       What are the 3 most important developments in the Russian foreign policy?

       For the last years, Russian foreign policy is smartly reactive (in the sense that it responds to international events in a quite clever way, but it does not instigate or successаfully lead any major international initiatives or processes). As such, there is no significant development worth highlighting in this area.

       What are the 3 most important events in the international scene?

       Ongoing wars, the ongoing economic crisis and a lack of the meaningful, policy-relevant ideas on how (and where) to proceed. There is a growing worldwide loss of trust in elected leaders and general frustration at their inability to act in the interest of the populations they represent. This is linked with the growing gap between what leaders promise domestically and their ability to cope with the international constraints on their actions.

       Who are the three persons who influenced global agenda on Russia in 2012?

       Russia is pretty immune from the influence of outside leaders or thinkers (in a few, select cases, to the detriment of her internal development). There is, however, a social stratum that influenced how others view Russia – a “Russian creative/middle class”; it showed that Russian society is dynamic, self-critical and future oriented – a partner for global society.

       What are the three current trends that will have the biggest impact on Russia in 2013?

       Internationally, the dominant, long-term trend is an ongoing economic crisis that is highlighted by EU and US debts, the lowering of the economic status of the middle class and withdrawal of many social provisions. That has led to the development of national protective mechanisms - of different scales and depths in different states - in main two forms: one is growing economic protectionism and another is a merger of domestic/international capital and power at a level unseen in recent economic history. That makes Russia – potentially – a known quality in the emerging order. Second, the role of the US is changing towards the aging empire - one increasingly illiberal domestically and decreasingly influential globally - that is clinging to global dominance more due to the inertia of globalization than to sound policy-making. That makes traditional Russia-US irritants in many ways obsolete. Thirdly, emerging developmental options coming from China, India and Brazil offer a whole range of policies for growth, applicable far beyond emerging economies. That is posing a substantial challenge for Russia to become a more attractive model for others to emulate or to cooperate with.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.