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The real reason exit poll was so wrong on Reform getting 13 MPs
2024-07-05 00:00:00.0     每日快报-政治     原网页

       

       Nigel Farage has been elected in Clacton-on-Sea (Image: GETTY)

       Reform UK is expected to win four seats in Parliament on a historic night for British politics.

       Among the Reform UK MPs set to soon sit on the green benches is the party's leader, Nigel Farage, who was elected on his eighth attempt by standing as a candidate in Clacton-on-Sea.

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       Mr Farage and other leading personalities within Reform have hailed the general election's results as "truly extraordinary" amid the collapse of the Conservative Party.

       The exit poll released just as the polling stations across the UK closed at 10pm on July 4, however, suggested Reform UK was on course to take 13 MPs to Westminster.

       As hundreds of seats have been declared, it is clear the exit poll led by psephologist Professor Sir John Curtice was once again able to take the pulse of the country when it comes to the bigger parties.

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       READ MORE: Nigel Farage's four-word warning to Labour after incredible Reform UK victory

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       John Curtice led the exit poll (Image: GETTY)

       But Prof Curtice himself said on Thursday night he was least confident about the seat figures of Reform UK, as well as of the SNP.

       This is because Mr Farage's party gained many votes in several constituencies and appeared to be ahead in the exit poll - but with very tight margins.

       Prof Curtice told the BBC: "It looks as though Reform may win more seats than many polls suggested.

       "This is largely because, not only has the Conservative vote fallen far in seats they previously held, but also because Reform has advanced most in areas people voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum.

       "However, how many seats Reform will win is highly uncertain – our model suggests there are many places where they have some - but a relatively low - chance of winning."

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       The Labour Party has won the general election (Image: GETTY)

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       The exit poll appeared to have overestimated Reform UK's gains and underestimated those of the Greens, which were initially projected to win in just two constituencies but are likely to sit four MPs in Parliament.

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       The results of the Lib Dem, which were nearly wiped out in the 2019 general election, were also slightly underestimated in the exit poll, having won at least 69 seats.

       Labour has won at least 410 seats - a major win in light of the disastrous results achieved by former party leader Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 - bringing it close to the record result achieved by Tony Blair in 1997.

       The Conservative Party lost at least 247 MPs in this election.

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关键词: Comments     Tories     Nigel Farage     Farage's     seats     Reform UK    
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