by Martin C. Libicki

       It is becoming more likely that the United States will find itself in the middle of a crisis in cyberspace — through the escalation of tensions associated with a major cyberattack, suspicions that one has taken place, or fears that it might do so soon. The growing number of cyber incidents is rising, and the risks arising from cyberspace are perceived as growing more consequential.

       But are cybercrises inevitable? And are there steps that can be taken to manage one?

       Yes — on both counts. In my latest study, conducted for the Air Force, I assess the best ways to address how crises escalate and their associated risks. By taking steps to reduce the incentives for other states to step into crisis, by controlling the narrative, understanding the stability parameters of the crises, and trying to manage escalation if conflicts arise from crises, the United States can manage a cybercrisis.

       The study draws several conclusions for the Air Force:

       Martin Libicki is a senior management scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.