Support for the opposition may do a lot of damage to the West, and this is why it is necessary to take every opportunity to encourage the sides to sit down at the negotiating table. If the conflict is not settled during Ramadan, events will spiral out of control and we will see the start of a full-scale civil war.

       The current situation in Syria reflects the new realities in international relations. The three consecutive vetoes cast by China and Russia in the UN Security Council, which have prevented foreign intervention in Syria, signal major changes in the global balance of power. Simply put, their vetoes mark the death of the unipolar world. Needless to say, those who dominated the scene before do not want to accept this new reality.

       This will be a painful process. The Syrian case, with its peculiar alignment of forces, bears this out. Syria is a multi-religious and multi-ethnic country. The Alawis are a minority in Syria and they are closer to Shiites; Christians, Kurds and others make up more than one third of the population. In effect, this means that more than a half of the population, at least, supports the current government. However, Western powers and some Gulf monarchies are using the uprising that started 16 months ago to overthrow the current regime despite its repeated statements that it is willing to hold talks with the opposition.

       Western countries are displaying surprising myopia – they don’t want to face reality or draw lessons from the recent past. The intervention in Iraq did not yield any dividends for the United States, and the second most influential Arab country was destroyed in the process. The situation in Libya is also symptomatic – the situation is far from stable and separatist trends are very strong. It is unclear whether the country remains united.

       Islamic radicals are becoming increasingly active in Syria. Even the Americans admit that the Syrian opposition includes about 700 al-Qaeda members. Indicatively, the Syrian Muslim Brothers, which are very different from their Egyptian counterparts, firmly rejected the UN and Kofi Annan’s initiative at their first congress. They spoke out against any mediation on behalf of the UN or the Arab League.

       Some of the statements made after the act of terror in downtown Damascus are particularly stunning, showing that some official Western representatives are actually in solidarity with the perpetrators of the terrorist attack. They demand that Bashar al-Assad step down and encourage the opposition to use terror. But it’s time to take a second look and acknowledge that this will lead to full-scale war that will spill over the borders and affect all neighboring states – Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey.

       Support for the opposition may do a lot of damage to the West, and this is why it is necessary to take every opportunity to encourage the sides to sit down at the negotiating table. Russian diplomats have already met with at least 15 delegations of different opposition groups in Syria to persuade them to do so. If the Western countries would stop fanning the flames of the conflict, it could be settled. Otherwise, the situation will spin out of control, with tragic consequences.

       The Western media report that Syria has large reserves of chemical weapons, and if they get into the hands of Muslim extremists, such as al-Qaeda, they will use them outside Syria. There is one last chance to reach a settlement and to get the sides speaking.

       This chance will not come from a UN Security Council resolution but rather the advent of Ramadan – a sacred holiday for all Muslims. Fighting is not allowed during Ramadan – all Muslims must turn their thoughts and souls to Allah. If the conflict is not settled during Ramadan, events will spiral out of control and we will see the start of a full-scale civil war.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.