IPI, manufacturing data

       THE April 2022 industrial production index (IPI) will be published on June 10 alongside the monthly manufacturing statistics.

       Bloomberg estimates a 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in April from 5.1% in March.

       According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations, Malaysia’s IPI is expected to be 3.5% by the end of this quarter.

       Meanwhile, Top Glove Corp Bhd is expected to release its third-quarter financial results for the period ended May 31 on Thursday.

       Bank Negara will announce its international reserves as at May 31 on Wednesday.

       The international reserves of Bank Negara amounted to US$111.4bil (RM489.16bil) as at May 13.

       Separately, Bursa Malaysia and its subsidiaries will be closed today.

       This is in conjunction with the official birthday of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah.

       China inflation

       CHINA’S inflation numbers, producer price index (PPI) and Caixin services purchasing managers’ index or PMI will be in focus.

       S&P Global said any upside surprises on its inflation may further exert pressure on the market, especially with the consensus already pointing to a month-on-month jump for headline CPI.

       Bloomberg estimates inflation to expand 2.2% y-o-y in May from 2.1% in April while PPI moderates to 6.5% y-o-y from 8% in April.

       Central bank meetings

       THE Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will be updating their monetary policy with tightening of policy rates not ruled out.

       RBA

       According to a Bloomberg poll, it is widely expected for the central bank to hike the RBA cash target rate.

       However, there is a wide range of forecasts, ranging from three analysts expecting a 25 basis point (bps)-hike to 0.6%, to two expecting a 40-bps hike to 0.75% to a sole analyst expecting a 50-bps hike to 0.85%.

       UOB Global Economics & Markets Research recognises that a 40-bps hike at this meeting would be a close call, but this is not its base-case scenario.

       It sees the RBA hiking by 25 bps to 0.6% in June, and for now, another 65 bps in the remainder of 2022, which would bring the official cash rate (OCR) to 1.25% by year-end.

       Further out, UOB is looking for the OCR to rise over 2023 and 2024, reaching 2.5% by the end of its forecast period

       In a Bloomberg survey of the 10 analysts, six expect a 50-bps hike to the RBI repo rate to 4.9% in this meeting and two expect 40 bps, with the remaining two expecting a 25-bps hike.

       UOB expects the BoT to inject a 25-bps rate hike this year, but only as early as the third quarter, in response to higher inflation risks and the faster-than-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee hike for the year ahead.