A NEW year always gives hope for better things. For Pakistan, nothing could be truer. Having braved 2021 through the highs and mostly lows, the citizens of the Islamic republic deserve a break. However, 2022 is being greeted by steep inflation and mounting economic woes. In the process of fulfilling IMF conditions so it can re-enter the programme, the PTI government has little choice but to unleash a new wave of inflation through the withdrawal of numerous subsidies as well as an increase in the price of petrol. These financial troubles will accentuate the level of political instability that is already rampant across the political landscape.

       The PDM’s long march is scheduled to take place in three months and it is sure to be preceded by all manner of turbulence. People may be glad to bid adieu to a year that saw the ravages of Covid-19 create chaos at a time when the citizenry was burdened by falling purchasing power, but they may need to brace for another year of uncertainty and political warring as local government elections take place within this charged atmosphere.

       The key factor in these combustible mix will be the relationship between the establishment and the government. It is no secret that the PTI government benefited from the full support extended by the establishment in all areas of governance for the last three years. However, this cosy relationship was jolted by the controversy surrounding the appointment of the DG ISI. By all accounts, it has not recovered from the jolt and there are visible indications that the establishment has stepped back from its active facilitation of the government. This will be a determining factor in how the political landscape develops this year and whether the opposition can muster up enough support to attempt an in-house change.

       Opposition leaders acknowledge that if any change has to take place, it will do so before the presentation of the budget in mid-year. This means the opposition will need to assess whether the establishment will step back from the political process enough for the PTI to face a fresh attack on its own. With a limited time frame available to them, the opposition will need to make a call fairly soon.

       A similar call will need to be made by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif about his return to Pakistan. Ever since he hinted in a speech in December that he would see his colleagues soon, there has been feverish speculation that he is ready to come back to face jail because he senses an imminent change. His return, if it takes place this year, will mark an important political milestone because it will provide his party an opportunity to create a momentum that it would want to translate into the ouster of the government.

       However, such an outcome will also depend to a large degree on how the establishment sees Mr Sharif’s return. If indeed there are no obstacles laid in his way, then it would be regarded as yet more evidence that the establishment has learnt the right lessons in the last few years and wants to extricate itself from the cut and thrust of politics.

       There is, however, another aspect to this scenario. The appointment of the new army chief is due in November this year and it is a decision that has always impacted the political lay of the land. Given the tension in the relationship with the government, the establishment would be eyeing this moment warily.

       The domestic situation therefore remains unstable and has an adverse impact on the quality of governance. The last few years are witness to how the PTI has struggled to govern the country. Improving governance in the year before the elections will therefore be the central challenge for the PTI. At the same time, the regional situation, and especially Afghanistan, will continue to present a central challenge to Pakistan. The year 2022 promises a rocky ride.

       Published in Dawn, January 1st, 2022