We’re still digging out from Monday’s storm, but it’s already time to begin tracking the next possibility for snow Thursday night.

       Computer models simulate a probable period of snow arriving sometime late Thursday night (probably after 7 p.m.) and continuing into Friday morning (ending before 10 a.m.).

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       This fast-moving storm will not contain as much moisture as Monday’s, and the ceiling for snowfall is probably closer to half a foot rather than over a foot. Like Monday’s storm, temperatures are likely to start off above freezing before dropping as the snow picks up. This does pose the prospect of slick, hazardous roads late Thursday night and especially into early Friday morning, when most places are in the 20s.

       Here’s what made Monday’s snowstorm so severe

       It’s too soon to predict exactly how much snow and where, but we can offer some probabilities for different amounts of snow in the District:

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       Chance of at least one inch: 60 percent Chance of at least three inches: 30 percent Chance of at least six inches: 5 to 10 percent

       Model discussion

       The models are in pretty good agreement that a high-altitude disturbance will be diving southeast from the northern Plains toward our area and that it will induce the development of a storm system along a cold front to our south. The disturbance is not as dynamic, so it is unlikely to produce snowfall of the intensity that affected us Monday. However, it still could produce a period of moderate snow to the north of the storm track. The takeaway from the models is this is a storm could produce a stripe of one to three or even three to six inches in portions of the area, but it’s too early to say exactly where the stripe might end up.

       The 50 simulations making up the European modeling system range from putting us in the sweet spot for snow to having the storm track too far north or south to produce significant amounts. Still, most of the simulations give us some accumulating snow, but just about a 20 percent chance of seeing three inches or more. Its main (highest-resolution) simulation predicts an area of one to three inches of snow, mainly from the District south.

       Picture-perfect scenes from Monday’s storm in Washington

       Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow talks about what caused Monday’s disruptive snowstorm across the D.C. region and provides a forecast for Thursday. (The Washington Post)

       The simulations in the American modeling system show a similar spread, with some placing the heaviest snow band to our north, some to our south and others right over the city. It offers about a 50-50 chance of at least three inches. Its main simulation is snowier than the European, forecasting a stripe of three to six inches through the immediate D.C. area (including both its northern and southern suburbs), as it has a little more pronounced dip in the jet stream and a more consolidated low-pressure center.

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       The Canadian model snowfall pattern is similar to the American, with slightly lesser amounts of mostly two to three inches.

       The NAM model takes the storm on track that would produce up to two to six inches throughout the region, with the heaviest snow probably occurring north and west of the city because temperatures are coldest there.

       Because the storm is still more than 48 hours away, it’s too early to make a definitive forecast about how much snow will fall and where. The bottom line is there will be a stripe of accumulation snow somewhere nearby, with exactly how much and where still up in the air.