War is always a bad decision, for all sides. But in this case, it's not a question if it’s good or bad, it's a question of survival for Israel.

       Tensions between Israel and Iran are getting higher day by day. As some experts say a new bloody war in the Middle East is looming. Valdai International Discussion club interviewed Zvi Magen, a Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), about the possibility of this conflict and its outcomes.

       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that international sanctions have not helped to pacify Iran's nuclear ambitions, and there is only one solution, which is a military operation against its nuclear facilities. So could you tell us please, in your assessment, is Israel ready to make a preemptive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities?

       To be ready for a strike as far as military ability is concerned? Or to be ready for a strike from the political point of view? It depends. However, I will try to give you some assessment. First of all, it's a matter of fact that sanctions, as you can see, are helpless in the Iranian case, and we have to choose between living with a nuclear and unfriendly state that has on its mind to use these nuclear weapons against Israel, or trying to stop it by military measures. This is more or less the main idea of Netanyahu's statement. Israel, in my opinion, is ready to carry out a strike, and if will be forced to do it, the strike will be a successful one.

       And what do you think about this decision? Is it a good or a bad decision to make a preemptive strike?

       War is always a bad decision, for all sides. But in this case, it's not a question if it’s good or bad, it's a question of survival for Israel. So if Netanyahu, as the leader of the state, believes that this is the only way to survive, then it's a good decision. I believe it's a question of to live or not to live.

       And do you think that the United States will join this military operation, or will they just sit and watch?

       This is a very good question. I'm not sure. My opinion is that it depends on the Iranians’ behavior after the strike. If the Iranians will attack Americans' targets, they will be forced to react, of course. May be that if the Iranian reaction is modest, and directed only toward Israel, they will not become involved.

       And what do you expect from Russia?

       Just to understand our position. And to accept it .To be our friend and our ally, and not to be involved. Of course Russia will always be involved as a world power, but we expect it to be modest as much as possible.

       Could you please clarify, what will Israel's military operation look like? Would there only be an airstrike against nuclear facilities, or would ground forces be involved?

       I'm not involved in military secrets, but as far as I understand, there is no need to send ground forces. It will be more an air strike. According to newspapers, there are some ideas that other kinds of weapons will be involved. But mainly, let's call it an air strike on their nuclear facilities, not more.

       As some media report, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak plan to make this attack next autumn, yet they don't have enough from the army and intelligence leadership. Is this information accurate, or is it false?

       About the decision of a strike in some period, no one can be sure. As far as I can understand from the media, there are different opinions. The military and the intelligence systems will carry out their orders. I'm not sure about the support of the cabinet. But as far as I understand, if there is clear information on the table about a nuclear threat, there will be no problem of cabinet support. In my opinion, the period depends on when the Iranian nuclear system will become operational.

       From your point of view, what actions on the part of Iran will lead us to another bloody war in the Middle East? What steps, what political decisions, what statements…?

       If Iran accepts the international position and stops the project, there will be no danger of any war in the area. If Iran continues cheating the international system, it's not only Israel's problem, it's a problem of the whole international community, because a nuclear Iran is a dangerous state for the Middle East, for the West, and in my opinion for Russia, too. So it is in everyone's common interest to stop them. But if the international system can't help, so Israel have to be ready to protect itself, because Israel is the main target for Iranian future nuclear weapons. So if they stop the process -- then no problem. If they want to continue the process and withstand all international pressure, then I believe this will end with attack. But it doesn't necessarily a war.

       How will Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern monarchies react, and what will they do if there is a military conflict between Israel and Iran?

       I suppose, they will condemn Israel's attack, but they will not be involved. There’ll be a lot of political statements and rhetoric. But I think they won’t take any actions.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.