PETALING JAYA: The outcome of the Melaka state election on Nov 20 will determine whether or not Perikatan Nasional can take on the 15th General Election without cooperating with Barisan Nasional, says Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) political analyst Dr Azmi Hassan.

       Bersatu’s (Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, the leading party in Perikatan) performance will set a precedent for future seat negotiations between Perikatan and Barisan, he said.

       “It’s basically a test for Bersatu, and the reason why they are inclined to cooperate with Umno is because they know Umno is much stronger.

       “It is also a test on whether Bersatu needs to tone down their demands in future, and whether Bersatu will see Umno as a ‘big brother’.”

       However, Azmi warned that Bersatu may risk being completely wiped out in the state election if they cannot avoid clashing with Barisan, given Umno’s prominent history and grassroots support in Melaka.

       Azmi also pointed out that during the 2018 general election, Bersatu only managed to win two seats out of the six it contested under the former Pakatan Harapan pact.

       “Now, Bersatu is totally alone even though they have PAS.

       “But the 14th General Election showed that PAS supporters are not massive.

       “Taking the results of the previous election, the possibility of being totally wiped out is there, and the consequences will be severe because they will affect Perikatan at national level and during the 15th General Election.”

       But it is still not too late for eleventh-hour deals to be struck between Perikatan and Barisan before Nomination Day tomorrow, said Azmi.

       “They can still work something out to ensure straight fights against the Opposition in certain seats.

       “It is an optimistic view because if Perikatan and Barisan were to clash, the loser will be both of them because they are gunning for the same voters, which are Malay votes.”

       Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) political analyst Suffian Mansor is expecting multi-cornered fights in all the 28 seats, given the emergence of new parties.

       “Apart from Barisan, Perikatan and Pakatan Harapan, there will also be independent candidates, the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) and Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia (Putra).”

       Suffian also said that Umno is likely to benefit from its decision to take on the Melaka state polls without Perikatan.

       “Umno has had grassroots support for the past 60 years. Umno might win some Malay-majority seats,” he said.

       Yesterday, Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan announced that Barisan will be contesting all 28 state seats, with Umno taking on 20, MCA seven and MIC one.

       Barisan will be fielding 24 new faces and several party heavyweights, including state Umno chief Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusof who will be contesting the Tanjung Bidara seat.

       On Nov 2, all six Umno division chiefs in Melaka said they would not cooperate with Bersatu in the state election.

       Universiti Malaya political analyst Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the announcements yesterday clearly showed that multi-cornered fights cannot be avoided in the Melaka state election.

       Awang also said the three-cornered fights could lessen Barisan’s chances of winning in certain seats.

       “But this is a test to evaluate Barisan’s effectiveness and also Perikatan’s true strength,” he said

       Tomorrow is Nomination Day and polling is on Nov 20.