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RICHMOND — A group of Virginia Republicans has launched a digital ad campaign that takes direct aim at the issue that’s supposed to be their Kryptonite in this year’s legislative elections: abortion.
“No Limits,” a 30-second spot that began running this week, accuses Democrats of being out of step with Virginia voters and seeking to make abortions available without restrictions up to the moment of birth.
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“Voters have a very distinct choice,” said Garren Shipley, spokesman for the House Republican Caucus, which paid for what he called a “six-figure” ad campaign. “Republicans have been absolutely clear from the get-go” that they favor a 15-week limit with exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the pregnant person, he said. “But Democrats can’t give you a straight answer about what they want to do.”
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The tactic of claiming the abortion high ground for Republicans following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision last year to overturn Roe v. Wade strikes some political observers as risky. Democrats have seen massive turnout in elections around the country ever since and are counting on the issue to help them this year in Virginia, where all 140 seats and control of the General Assembly are at stake on the Nov. 7 ballot.
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“Even in red states, when abortion has been on the ballot, Republicans have lost,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. “Arguing that Democrats favor infanticide is an example of how difficult their position is.”
“I would like to be a fly on the wall to see how you make that pitch to a Republican candidate that, yeah, abortion is a winning issue. It’s not a winning issue,” said Soji Akomolafe, chair of the political science department at Norfolk State University.
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Virginia Democrats generally have run this year on preventing Republicans from placing limits on abortion access, rather than specifying changes to current law. Republicans contend that a Democratic effort in the most recent legislative session to seek a constitutional amendment enshrining abortion protections amounted to a wide-open endorsement of abortion without limits, but Democrats just as strongly denied that was the intent.
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Shipley said polls have shown Virginia voters to be favorable to the idea of a 15-week ban, with exceptions. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) proposed such a ban immediately after the Supreme Court’s decision last year, but legislation never made it out of committee even in the Republican-controlled House of Delegates, where leaders reasoned that it faced no chance in the Democratic-controlled state Senate.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll in April found voters split on the subject of a 15-week ban with exceptions, with 49 percent supporting and 46 percent opposing. However, they were not told that Virginia’s law allows abortion through the second trimester of pregnancy, or about 26 weeks, and permits abortions in the third trimester only if the pregnant person’s life or health is at serious risk, as certified by three doctors.
Still, when asked whether they would like to see changes to Virginia’s current law, 34 percent said it should remain the same, 41 percent said it should be less strict, and 17 percent said it should be more strict.
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The new 30-second Republican ad opens with the sound of a fetal heartbeat and a voice saying, “Most people believe that abortion at the moment of birth is wrong,” the text of the words highlighted in yellow against a plain gray background.
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“Not Virginia Democrats,” the narration continues, over an image of the state Capitol and several Democratic lawmakers, including Del. Kathy Tran (Fairfax) and former governor Ralph Northam. “They fought to make late-term abortions the rule, not the exception.”
The ad then uses video from a 2019 committee hearing in which Tran, presenting a bill that would have loosened restrictions on abortion, says in response to a question that the measure would allow abortion “all the way up to 40 weeks.” After an image of a newborn baby, the ad cuts to Northam saying in an interview from the same year that “the infant would be kept comfortable,” an excerpt from a description he made on a radio show of what happens to a baby born with fatal abnormalities.
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Those quotes caused a national stir among conservatives at the time, drawing accusations that Northam — a pediatric neurologist — was advocating killing babies. Tran later said she misspoke and was not referring to ending a live birth, and Northam said the suggestion that he was describing infanticide was “disgusting.” The uproar around the remarks was quickly overwhelmed by the blackface scandal that hit Northam soon after, but Republicans have recycled the clips ever since.
“When Virginia Democrats say no limits,” the ad concludes, as the fetal heartbeat flatlines, “they mean no limits.”
A spokesman for the Democratic Party of Virginia had not seen the ad when contacted by The Washington Post and did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But he sent a link to an ad the DPVA began running in mid-September that warns, “MAGA Republicans were one vote away from banning abortion in Virginia.”
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That appears to be a reference to the beginning of this year’s legislative session, when Democrats held a 21-19 majority in the Senate. One Democrat, Sen. Joe Morrissey (Richmond), had signaled openness to the idea of a 15-week ban with exceptions. If he had flipped, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) could have cast a tiebreaker in favor of the ban.
But Democrats picked up another seat during a special election to fill a vacancy in Virginia Beach, giving them insurance.
Republicans have cried foul about another Democratic ad that began running approximately a month ago that cites news stories from states around Virginia taking actions to restrict access to abortion, including the line “women facing the death penalty for having an abortion.” The ad warns that “MAGA Republicans in Richmond want Virginia to be next.”
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Shipley, the GOP House spokesman, said that ad bears no relation to reality. “We’ve been very clear from day one what the consensus position of Virginians is,” he said, referring to the 15-week ban with exceptions. “It would be electoral malpractice to run on something and say this is what you’re going do and then not do that.”
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Akomolafe, the Norfolk State political scientist, pointed out that several Republicans have been caught on audio recordings expressing personal preferences for tighter restrictions. John Stirrup, a Republican running for the House of Delegates in a swing district in western Prince William County, was surreptitiously recorded this summer saying that “I would support a 100 percent ban.” Youngkin himself — who regularly notes that Virginians “elected a pro-life governor” — was similarly recorded on the campaign trail in 2021 saying he had to stay mum about abortion for fear of alienating independents but that if elected, he would go “on offense.”
With Virginia’s Southern neighbors all tightening abortion restrictions after Roe v. Wade was overturned, Akomolafe said, Democrats are smart to run on the notion that they’ll leave Virginia’s law alone.
“If you are running on restricting abortion,” he said, “I don’t know what your strategy is going to be, but it better be good.”
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